Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST
Palm kernel meal: supply risk by country
For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.
Countries, most at risk first
- Malaysia5· no cut expected
USDA: 2.6 million t in 2026/27, down 5.1% on last year, 24% of the world's; raised 4% in November
USDA expects no palm kernel meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
- Colombia0· no cut expected
USDA: 183,000 t in 2026/27, down 1.6% on last year, 2% of the world's
USDA expects no palm kernel meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
- Indonesia0· no cut expected
USDA: 6.2 million t in 2026/27, down 3.8% on last year, 57% of the world's
USDA expects no palm kernel meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
- Nigeria0· no cut expected
USDA: 578,000 t in 2026/27, down 0.3% on last year, 5% of the world's
USDA expects no palm kernel meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
- Thailand0· no cut expected
USDA: 419,000 t in 2026/27, down 1.9% on last year, 4% of the world's
USDA expects no palm kernel meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
Prices, October 2026
The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
| Commodity | Price | Month | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | |||
| Crude oil, average | 108.5 $/bbl | +6.1% | +72.2% |
| Crude oil, Brent | 125 $/bbl | +7% | +93.2% |
| Crude oil, Dubai | 102.7 $/bbl | +10.1% | +59.7% |
| Crude oil, WTI | 97.7 $/bbl | +0.8% | +62.3% |
| Coal, Australian | 152.3 $/mt | +3.5% | +41.7% |
| Coal, South African | 100 $/mt | +1.8% | +9.2% |
| Natural gas, US | 2.96 $/mmbtu | +0.3% | −7.5% |
| Natural gas, Europe | 28.5 $/mmbtu | +12.1% | +161.7% |
| Liquefied natural gas, Japan | 16.59 $/mmbtu | +2% | +49.5% |
| Natural gas index | 182.7 2010=100 | +8.9% | +86.2% |
| Beverages | |||
| Cocoa | 5.75 $/kg | −2.9% | −3.4% |
| Coffee, Arabica | 7.4 $/kg | +1.9% | −16.9% |
| Coffee, Robusta | 3.63 $/kg | −1.6% | −23.4% |
| Tea, avg 3 auctions | 2.88 $/kg | +0.7% | −4.3% |
| Tea, Colombo | 3.75 $/kg | +0.5% | −4.8% |
| Tea, Kolkata | 2.55 $/kg | +0.8% | −10.8% |
| Tea, Mombasa | 2.33 $/kg | +1.3% | +4.5% |
| Food | |||
| Coconut oil | 2,029 $/mt | −2.4% | −20.3% |
| Groundnuts | 1,600 $/mt | +2.4% | +33.3% |
| Fish meal | 2,840 $/mt | −2.6% | +60.5% |
| Groundnut oil | 1,850 $/mt | −0.5% | +13.6% |
| Palm oil | 1,120 $/mt | −5.1% | +7.9% |
| Palm kernel oil | 2,287 $/mt | −2.9% | +0.6% |
| Soybeans | 515 $/mt | −1.7% | +27.5% |
| Soybean oil | 1,546 $/mt | −4.3% | +36.6% |
| Soybean meal | 453 $/mt | +1.3% | +27.2% |
| Rapeseed oil | 1,405 $/mt | −2.6% | +11.2% |
| Sunflower oil | 1,413 $/mt | +1.4% | +3.7% |
| Barley | 80.4 $/mtAugust 2020 | — | — |
| Maize | 226.5 $/mt | −5.5% | +14.3% |
| Sorghum | 189.5 $/mtAugust 2020 | — | — |
| Rice, Thai 5% | 489 $/mt | +1.5% | +37.4% |
| Rice, Thai 25% | 472 $/mt | +2.4% | +34.5% |
| Rice, Thai A.1 | 467.4 $/mt | −1.2% | +39.1% |
| Rice, Viet Namese 5% | 413.9 $/mt | −1.1% | +13.2% |
| Wheat, US SRW | 260.3 $/mt | −6.6% | +24.4% |
| Wheat, US HRW | 317 $/mt | −8.6% | +37.3% |
| Banana, Europe | 1.1 $/kg | −1.8% | −2.7% |
| Banana, US | 1.18 $/kg | +5.4% | +4.4% |
| Orange | 0.75 $/kg | −5.1% | −28.6% |
| Beef | 6.83 $/kg | −0.4% | −3.7% |
| Chicken | 1.84 $/kg | +1.7% | +7% |
| Lamb | 7.48 $/kg | +3% | +18.2% |
| Shrimps, Mexican | 8.6 $/kgOctober 2023 | — | — |
| Sugar, EU | 0.37 $/kg | −2.6% | −2.6% |
| Sugar, US | 0.92 $/kg | +8.2% | +19.5% |
| Sugar, world | 0.43 $/kg | +4.9% | +26.5% |
| Raw materials | |||
| Tobacco, US import u.v. | 6,775 $/mtJuly 2026 | — | — |
| Logs, Cameroon | 392.1 $/cubic meter | −2.7% | −3.7% |
| Logs, Malaysian | 188.5 $/cubic meter | −0.9% | −4.1% |
| Sawnwood, Cameroon | 636.8 $/cubic meter | −0.9% | −0.5% |
| Sawnwood, Malaysian | 724.3 $/cubic meter | −1% | −0.5% |
| Plywood | 345.8 cents/sheet | −0.9% | −4.1% |
| Cotton, A Index | 2 $/kg | −4.8% | +19% |
| Rubber, TSR20 | 2.55 $/kg | +5.8% | +49.1% |
| Rubber, RSS3 | 2.83 $/kg | +2.9% | +41.5% |
| Fertilizers | |||
| Phosphate rock | 170 $/mt | 0% | +11.5% |
| DAP | 803.1 $/mt | +0.3% | +6.5% |
| TSP | 692 $/mt | +0.3% | +5.1% |
| Urea | 420 $/mt | +3.1% | +6.5% |
| Potassium chloride | 357.5 $/mt | −2.7% | +1.6% |
| Metals and minerals | |||
| Aluminum | 3,061 $/mt | −6.8% | +9.6% |
| Iron ore, cfr spot | 90.8 $/dmtu | −7.1% | −12.3% |
| Copper | 14,508 $/mt | +0.2% | +35.1% |
| Lead | 1,860 $/mt | −0.7% | −5.5% |
| Tin | 51,696 $/mt | −3.8% | +43.6% |
| Nickel | 15,436 $/mt | −5.4% | +2.3% |
| Zinc | 3,818 $/mt | −5% | +21.1% |
| Precious metals | |||
| Gold | 4,105 $/troy oz | −5% | +1.2% |
| Platinum | 1,621 $/troy oz | −9.1% | +0.3% |
| Silver | 57 $/troy oz | −11.8% | +15.4% |
The record
Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.
| Call | Calls | USDA cut | Raised | Unchanged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no cut expected | 403 | 30 | 32 | 341 |
| cut possible | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sources
Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.
The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).