For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.
1 supply risk our sources aren't covering.
Supply risk not in the news
CropUSDA: 13.4 million bags in 2026/27, up 7.2% on last year, 7% of the world's
WeatherMedium risk. Antioquia (Andes): 153 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.2 times normal: a flooding risk while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 13.4 million bags, 8% of the world's; imports 2 million bags, 1% of the world's
MarketArabica coffee $7.4/kg in October, up 1.9% on the month, down 16.9% on the year, the highest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (14,732 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 30
- +25 Medium weather risk. Antioquia (Andes): 153 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.2 times normal: a flooding risk while the crop is being harvested
- +5 USDA expects a crop 7% bigger than last year's
CropUSDA: 2 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 3% of the world's
WeatherMedium risk. Meta (Puerto Gaitán): 15.6 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 19% of normal, while the crop is growing
TradeExports 525,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 125,000 t
MarketPalm oil $1,120/mt in October, down 5.1% on the month, up 7.9% on the year, the lowest since February 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 30
- +25 Medium weather risk. Meta (Puerto Gaitán): 15.6 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 19% of normal, while the crop is growing
- +5 Palm oil fell 5.1% in October: the market isn't paying for the weather risk
CropUSDA: 2.2 million t in 2027, up 2.4% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeImports 60,000 t
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 183,000 t in 2026/27, down 1.6% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 2,000 t
CropUSDA: 330,000 t in 2026/27, down 1.5% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of
MarketPalm kernel oil $2,287/mt in October, down 2.9% on the month, up 0.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 133,000 t in 2026/27, down 1.5% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 88,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 10,000 t
MarketPalm kernel oil $2,287/mt in October, down 2.9% on the month, up 0.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
CropUSDA: 2.4 million t in 2026/27, up 4.3% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 730,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 183,000 t
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 805,000 t in 2027, down 0.6% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 30,000 t; imports 20,000 t; bought 30 t of US beef in the week to Oct 29; 1,006 t shipped this marketing year (942 t a year earlier)
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Bought from the US
USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.
| Commodity | This week | Shipped this year |
|---|
| corn | 201,910 t | 1,315,500 ta year earlier 1,395,899 |
| soybean meal | 42,774 t | 67,338 ta year earlier 172,370 |
| wheat | 15,500 t | 216,076 ta year earlier 438,850 |
| rice | 9,019 t | 71,539 ta year earlier 318 |
| pork | 2,580 t | 80,984 ta year earlier 76,861 |
| soybeans | 577 t | 43,993 ta year earlier 65,723 |
| beef | 30 t | 1,006 ta year earlier 942 |
| soybean oil | 0 t | 0 ta year earlier 2,800 |
| upland cotton | 0 bales | 0 balesa year earlier 1,320 |
Who buys its commodities
Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).
- Crude oil $12 billionUnited States 38%, Panama 32%, India 14%, China 7.5%
- Coal $6.8 billionSouth Korea 13%, Netherlands 11%, Turkey 9.8%, China 8.4%
- Gold $3.8 billionUnited States 41%, India 16%, Italy 14%, United Arab Emirates 11%
- Coffee $3.6 billionUnited States 39%, Belgium-Luxembourg (...1998) 8.1%, Canada 7.2%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 6.8%
- Sugar $426 millionUnited States 28%, Chile 15%, Haiti 8.8%, Ecuador 8.6%
- Palm oil $404 millionMexico 32%, Dominican Rep. 14%, Brazil 13%, Netherlands 8%
- Lemons and limes $143 millionUnited States 73%, Netherlands 9.1%, China 4.6%, France 3%
- Cocoa $140 millionMexico 27%, United States 20%, Malaysia 7.3%, Costa Rica 7.1%
- Beef $106 millionRussia 39%, China 32%, Chile 11%, El Salvador 8%
- Palm kernel oil $103 millionMexico 55%, Netherlands 14%, Argentina 7.5%, United States 6.9%
Where its commodities come from
Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.
- Corn (maize) $1.6 billionUnited States 97%, Brazil 1.4%, Argentina 0.6%, Honduras 0.5%
- Natural gas $900 millionUnited States 81%, Trinidad and Tobago 15%, United Kingdom 4.3%
- Soybean meal $886 millionUnited States 71%, Bolivia 25%, Argentina 3.9%, Brazil 0.1%
- Wheat $547 millionCanada 61%, United States 24%, Argentina 12%, Uruguay 1.6%
- Crude oil $460 millionUnited States 70%, Nigeria 18%, Guyana 11%, Brazil 0.1%
- Pork $445 millionUnited States 78%, Canada 13%, Chile 7.4%, Brazil 0.7%
- Soybean oil $288 millionBolivia 62%, United States 25%, Argentina 13%, Brazil 0.7%
- Urea $225 millionRussia 47%, Trinidad and Tobago 13%, Venezuela 8.7%, Malaysia 6.2%
- Soybeans $212 millionUnited States 100%, Brazil 0.1%, China 0.1%, Canada 0%
- Sugar $184 millionBrazil 71%, Guatemala 12%, Bolivia 7.1%, Peru 4.6%
Colombia's country page
The record
Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.
| Call | Calls | USDA cut | Raised | Unchanged |
|---|
| no cut expected | 403 | 30 | 32 | 341 |
| cut possible | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sources
Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.
The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).