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Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

China: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Oranges

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 7.7 million t in 2025/26, up 0.8% on last year, 17% of the world's
WeatherLow risk. South Jiangxi (Ganzhou): 58 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.2 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 150,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 161,000 t, 4% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 Some weather risk. South Jiangxi (Ganzhou): 58 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.2 times normal, while the crop is being harvested

Skim milk powder

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 75,000 t in 2026, up 19% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 15,000 t; imports 195,000 t, 14% of the world's
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 19% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Sunflower oil

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 264,000 t in 2026/27, up 14.8% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 3,000 t; imports 1.2 million t, 8% of the world's
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 15% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Cheese

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 36,000 t in 2026, up 12.5% on last year
TradeExports 1,000 t; imports 230,000 t, 10% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 13% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Walnuts

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.6 million t in 2026/27, up 6.7% on last year, 58% of the world's
TradeExports 675,000 t, 47% of the world's; imports 40,000 t, 3% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 7% bigger than last year's

Table grapes

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 15 million t in 2025/26, up 5.6% on last year, 50% of the world's
TradeExports 770,000 t, 18% of the world's; imports 100,000 t, 3% of the world's
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Chicken

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 19 million t in 2027, up 5.6% on last year, 17% of the world's
TradeExports 1.9 million t, 12% of the world's; imports 400,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Fish meal

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 465,000 t in 2025/26, up 5.7% on last year, 9% of the world's
TradeImports 2.1 million t, 55% of the world's
MarketFish meal $2,840/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 60.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Sunflower meal

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 401,000 t in 2026/27, up 5.2% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 3 million t, 33% of the world's
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 5% bigger than last year's

Pears

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 20.5 million t in 2025/26, down 2.3% on last year, 79% of the world's
TradeExports 700,000 t, 36% of the world's; imports 8,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Grapefruit

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 5.4 million t in 2025/26, up 2.2% on last year, 76% of the world's
TradeExports 190,000 t, 30% of the world's; imports 115,000 t, 19% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peaches and nectarines

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 17.3 million t in 2026/27, up 1.8% on last year, 69% of the world's
TradeExports 100,000 t, 10% of the world's; imports 52,000 t, 5% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pig herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 722 million head in 2027, down 1.2% on last year, 55% of the world's
TradeExports 1.4 million head, 13% of the world's; imports 2,000 head
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)

Peanut meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.9 million t in 2026/27, up 2.4% on last year, 50% of the world's
TradeExports 2,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 100,000 t, 81% of the world's

Peanut oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.1 million t in 2026/27, up 2.4% on last year, 50% of the world's
TradeExports 10,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 270,000 t, 70% of the world's
MarketGroundnut oil $1,850/mt in October, down 0.5% on the month, up 13.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pork

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 58.4 million t in 2027, down 2.2% on last year, 49% of the world's
TradeExports 200,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 820,000 t, 9% of the world's; bought 504 t of US pork in the week to Oct 29; 130,526 t shipped this marketing year (111,073 t a year earlier)
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peanuts

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 18 million t in 2026/27, down 2.2% on last year, 36% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 500,000 t, 11% of the world's; imports 750,000 t, 18% of the world's
MarketGroundnuts $1,600/mt in October, up 2.4% on the month, up 33.3% on the year, the highest since February 2025
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybean meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 87.9 million t in 2026/27, up 2.6% on last year, 29% of the world's
TradeExports 1.1 million t, 1% of the world's; imports 100,000 t; bought 260 t of US soybean meal in the week to Oct 29; 0 t shipped this marketing year (0 t a year earlier)
MarketSoybean meal $453/mt in October, up 1.3% on the month, up 27.2% on the year, the highest since July 2024
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cotton

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 34 million bales in 2026/27, down 5% on last year, 29% of the world's; raised 1.5% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 75,000 bales; imports 7 million bales, 16% of the world's; bought 87 bales of US cotton in the week to Oct 29; 26,782 bales shipped this marketing year (37,541 bales a year earlier)
MarketCotton (A Index) $2/kg in October, down 4.8% on the month, up 19% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (44,168 contracts net)
News4 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybean oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 21.6 million t in 2026/27, down 1.1% on last year, 29% of the world's
TradeExports 1 million t, 7% of the world's; imports 150,000 t, 1% of the world's
MarketSoybean oil $1,546/mt in October, down 4.3% on the month, up 36.6% on the year, the lowest since March 2026
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 11.3 million t in 2026/27, down 5% on last year, 29% of the world's; raised 1.5% in November
TradeExports 15,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 350,000 t, 40% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Rice

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 147 million t in 2026/27, up 0.5% on last year, 28% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 2.2 million t, 4% of the world's; imports 3.5 million t, 6% of the world's
MarketThai 5% rice $489/mt in October, up 1.5% on the month, up 37.4% on the year, the highest since June 2026
News5 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.2 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 26% of the world's
TradeExports 7,000 t, 12% of the world's

Whole milk powder

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.1 million t in 2026, down 1.3% on last year, 26% of the world's
TradeExports 40,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 415,000 t, 39% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.5 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 25% of the world's
TradeImports 20,000 t, 11% of the world's

Corn (maize)

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 307 million t in 2026/27, up 1.9% on last year, 24% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 20,000 t; imports 5 million t, 3% of the world's; bought 0 t of US corn (maize) in the week to Oct 29; 0 t shipped this marketing year (0 t a year earlier)
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Rapeseed meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 11.8 million t in 2026/27, up 3.1% on last year, 22% of the world's
TradeExports 100,000 t; imports 2.8 million t, 25% of the world's

Rapeseed oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 7.8 million t in 2026/27, up 3.1% on last year, 20% of the world's
TradeExports 120,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 2.3 million t, 27% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Wheat

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 141 million t in 2026/27, up 0.7% on last year, 17% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 1 million t; imports 6 million t, 3% of the world's
MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Rapeseed (canola)

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 16.2 million t in 2026/27, up 1.3% on last year, 16% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeImports 5 million t, 25% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cattle herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 41.7 million head in 2027, down 1.7% on last year, 15% of the world's
TradeExports 11,000 head; imports 25,000 head, 1% of the world's
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)

Beef

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 6.8 million t in 2027, down 0.4% on last year, 11% of the world's
TradeExports 26,000 t; imports 3.7 million t, 29% of the world's; cancelled 573 t of US beef in the week to Oct 29; 7,121 t shipped this marketing year (34,959 t a year earlier)
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
News5 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Millet

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.7 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 9% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sugar

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 12.7 million t in 2026/27, up 0.8% on last year, 7% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 160,000 t; imports 5.5 million t, 9% of the world's
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Sorghum

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.1 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 5,000 t; imports 7.2 million t, 84% of the world's; bought 0 t of US sorghum in the week to Oct 29; 14,247 t shipped this marketing year (0 t a year earlier)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybeans

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 21 million t in 2026/27, up 0.5% on last year, 5% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 100,000 t; imports 115 million t, 60% of the world's; bought 873,880 t of US soybeans in the week to Oct 29; 7.6 million t shipped this marketing year (0 t a year earlier)
MarketSoybeans $515/mt in October, down 1.7% on the month, up 27.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (142,727 contracts net)
News7 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Oats

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 850,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeImports 950,000 t, 34% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sunflower seed

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.2 million t in 2026/27, up 1.4% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 600,000 t, 15% of the world's; imports 130,000 t, 4% of the world's
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Orange juice

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 31,500 t in 2025/26, up 1.6% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 11,500 t; imports 64,100 t, 6% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Coffee

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.9 million bags in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 1.2 million bags; imports 6.1 million bags, 4% of the world's
MarketArabica coffee $7.4/kg in October, up 1.9% on the month, down 16.9% on the year, the highest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (14,732 contracts net)
News11 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Butter

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 130,000 t in 2026, up 4% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 5,000 t; imports 170,000 t, 24% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Palm oil

0
CropUSDA expects no palm oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 20,000 t; imports 3.7 million t, 9% of the world's
MarketPalm oil $1,120/mt in October, down 5.1% on the month, up 7.9% on the year, the lowest since February 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Coconut oil

0
CropUSDA expects no coconut oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeImports 190,000 t, 11% of the world's
MarketCoconut oil $2,029/mt in October, down 2.4% on the month, down 20.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Palm kernel oil

0
CropUSDA expects no palm kernel oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeImports 700,000 t, 27% of the world's
MarketPalm kernel oil $2,287/mt in October, down 2.9% on the month, up 0.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026

Copra meal

0
CropUSDA expects no copra meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeImports 150,000 t, 27% of the world's

Palm kernel meal

0
CropUSDA expects no palm kernel meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeImports 1.3 million t, 17% of the world's

Tea

0
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
MarketTea (three-auction average) $2.88/kg in October, up 0.7% on the month, down 4.3% on the year, the highest since August 2026
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Pistachios

0
CropUSDA expects no pistachios crop to speak of in 2025/26
TradeImports 75,000 t, 14% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Bought from the US

USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.

CommodityThis weekShipped this year
soybeans873,880 t7,570,067 ta year earlier 0
pork504 t130,526 ta year earlier 111,073
soybean meal260 t0 ta year earlier 0
upland cotton87 bales26,782 balesa year earlier 37,541
corn0 t0 ta year earlier 0
sorghum0 t14,247 ta year earlier 0
beef-573 t7,121 ta year earlier 34,959

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Gold $14 billionChina, Hong Kong SAR 79%, Thailand 4.5%, India 4%, Iran 3.6%
  • Silver $5.2 billionChina, Hong Kong SAR 61%, United Kingdom 29%, Thailand 3.9%, Switzerland 2%
  • Copper $3.1 billionTaiwan 56%, Vietnam 17%, Thailand 15%, South Korea 2.5%
  • Natural gas $2.7 billionChina, Hong Kong SAR 76%, South Korea 6%, Malta 4.4%, Japan 3.4%
  • DAP fertilizer $2.5 billionIndia 20%, Bangladesh 17%, Vietnam 13%, Pakistan 9.5%
  • Tea $1.3 billionMorocco 17%, Ghana 12%, Mauritania 4.8%, United States 4.5%
  • Apples $1.3 billionIndonesia 21%, Philippines 16%, Vietnam 14%, Thailand 14%
  • Nickel $1.2 billionTaiwan 48%, Singapore 26%, Netherlands 6.7%, South Korea 3.7%
  • Table grapes $1.1 billionIndonesia 26%, Vietnam 23%, Thailand 19%, Philippines 11%
  • Coal $976 millionIndonesia 42%, South Korea 20%, Japan 14%, Malaysia 4.3%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Crude oil $318 billionRussia 20%, Saudi Arabia 15%, Malaysia 12%, Iraq 12%
  • Iron ore $113 billionAustralia 65%, Brazil 18%, South Africa 3%, India 2.4%
  • Copper $109 billionChile 24%, Dem. Rep. of the Congo 16%, Peru 15%, Kazakhstan 5.1%
  • Natural gas $64 billionAustralia 23%, Russia 20%, Qatar 17%, Turkmenistan 15%
  • Gold $63 billionSwitzerland 40%, China, Hong Kong SAR 22%, South Africa 14%, Australia 6.4%
  • Soybeans $47 billionBrazil 67%, United States 27%, Argentina 3.9%, Canada 1.1%
  • Coal $39 billionRussia 27%, Australia 22%, Mongolia 21%, Indonesia 17%
  • Beef $13 billionBrazil 48%, Argentina 14%, Australia 12%, United States 12%
  • Aluminium $7.8 billionRussia 48%, Malaysia 19%, Indonesia 5.9%, Thailand 4.3%
  • Cotton $4.5 billionBrazil 38%, United States 35%, Australia 15%, India 2.9%

China's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).