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Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

Vietnam: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Coffee

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 32.5 million bags in 2026/27, up 2.5% on last year, 17% of the world's
WeatherLow risk. Lâm Đồng (Bảo Lộc): 41 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 1.6 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 29 million bags, 18% of the world's; imports 1.3 million bags
MarketArabica coffee $7.4/kg in October, up 1.9% on the month, down 16.9% on the year, the highest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (14,732 contracts net)
News13 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 Some weather risk. Lâm Đồng (Bảo Lộc): 41 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 1.6 times normal, while the crop is being harvested

Rice

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 26.1 million t in 2026/27, down 0.4% on last year, 5% of the world's
WeatherLow risk. Red River Delta (Thái Bình): 44 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.5 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 8.1 million t, 13% of the world's; imports 3.6 million t, 6% of the world's
MarketThai 5% rice $489/mt in October, up 1.5% on the month, up 37.4% on the year, the highest since June 2026
News10 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 Some weather risk. Red River Delta (Thái Bình): 44 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.5 times normal, while the crop is being harvested

Soybean meal

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.1 million t in 2026/27, up 15.2% on last year
TradeExports 50,000 t; imports 6.5 million t, 8% of the world's; bought 100,607 t of US soybean meal in the week to Oct 29; 77,933 t shipped this marketing year (19,978 t a year earlier)
MarketSoybean meal $453/mt in October, up 1.3% on the month, up 27.2% on the year, the highest since July 2024
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 15% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Fish meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 580,000 t in 2025/26, down 0% on last year, 11% of the world's
TradeExports 335,000 t, 11% of the world's; imports 135,000 t, 4% of the world's
MarketFish meal $2,840/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 60.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Copra meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 108,000 t in 2026/27, up 0.9% on last year, 6% of the world's
TradeExports 4,000 t; imports 50,000 t, 9% of the world's

Coconut oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 195,000 t in 2026/27, up 0.5% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 15,000 t; imports 4,000 t
MarketCoconut oil $2,029/mt in October, down 2.4% on the month, down 20.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pork

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 4.2 million t in 2027, up 3.5% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 13,000 t; imports 155,000 t, 2% of the world's; bought 90 t of US pork in the week to Oct 29; 743 t shipped this marketing year (2,409 t a year earlier)
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
News4 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peanuts

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 375,000 t in 2026/27, down 1.3% on last year
TradeExports 30,000 t; imports 240,000 t, 6% of the world's
MarketGroundnuts $1,600/mt in October, up 2.4% on the month, up 33.3% on the year, the highest since February 2025
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Corn (maize)

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 4.1 million t in 2026/27, down 2.4% on last year
TradeExports 500,000 t; imports 14.6 million t, 7% of the world's; bought 0 t of US corn (maize) in the week to Oct 29; 14,841 t shipped this marketing year (99,751 t a year earlier)
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Peanut oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 14,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year
TradeExports 10,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 12,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketGroundnut oil $1,850/mt in October, down 0.5% on the month, up 13.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Palm kernel meal

0
CropUSDA expects no palm kernel meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 630,000 t, 8% of the world's

Natural rubber

0
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
MarketTSR20 rubber $2.55/kg in October, up 5.8% on the month, up 49.1% on the year, the highest since March 2013
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cotton

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3,000 bales in 2026/27, down 0% on last year
TradeImports 8.3 million bales, 19% of the world's; bought 200,516 bales of US cotton in the week to Oct 29; 714,293 bales shipped this marketing year (552,012 bales a year earlier)
MarketCotton (A Index) $2/kg in October, down 4.8% on the month, up 19% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (44,168 contracts net)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pears

0
CropUSDA expects no pears crop to speak of in 2025/26
TradeImports 150,000 t, 8% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Bought from the US

USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.

CommodityThis weekShipped this year
upland cotton200,516 bales714,293 balesa year earlier 552,012
soybean meal100,607 t77,933 ta year earlier 19,978
soybeans10,645 t266,489 ta year earlier 260,678
pork90 t743 ta year earlier 2,409
beef55 t5,235 ta year earlier 3,425
wheat4 t362,915 ta year earlier 354,297
corn0 t14,841 ta year earlier 99,751
sorghum0 t0 ta year earlier 0

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Coffee $4.1 billionFed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 15%, Italy 12%, Spain 11%, Japan 9.1%
  • Rice $4.1 billionPhilippines 45%, Indonesia 19%, Malaysia 11%, Côte d'Ivoire 8.5%
  • Crude oil $1.6 billionAustralia 38%, Thailand 34%, Brunei Darussalam 9.7%, Japan 9.5%
  • Natural rubber $1.2 billionChina 29%, India 18%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 5%, South Korea 4.8%
  • Aluminium $424 millionChina 51%, Taiwan 25%, Turkey 5.3%, Spain 2.8%
  • Fish meal $300 millionChina 80%, Malaysia 11%, Japan 2.5%, Taiwan 2.4%
  • Urea $251 millionSouth Korea 35%, Cambodia 23%, Philippines 12%, New Zealand 7%
  • Coal $235 millionJapan 34%, Philippines 17%, Indonesia 8%, China 7.5%
  • Natural gas $213 millionCambodia 100%, Montenegro 0%
  • Copper $147 millionChina 57%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 37%, Indonesia 1.9%, Japan 1.6%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Coal $5.0 billionAustralia 50%, Indonesia 36%, South Africa 8.1%, Mozambique 5.1%
  • Corn (maize) $2.5 billionArgentina 55%, Brazil 37%, Pakistan 4.7%, United States 0.9%
  • Cotton $2.5 billionBrazil 41%, Australia 25%, United States 24%, India 2.9%
  • Soybean meal $2.2 billionArgentina 73%, Brazil 15%, United States 7.6%, China 3.5%
  • Copper $1.9 billionChina 28%, Indonesia 25%, Australia 17%, Philippines 10%
  • Rice $1.7 billionCambodia 82%, India 16%, Myanmar 1.3%, China 1%
  • Aluminium $1.6 billionAustralia 27%, Malaysia 26%, India 14%, South Korea 14%
  • Iron ore $1.5 billionAustralia 58%, Malaysia 24%, China 9.9%, South Africa 4.1%
  • Gold $1.3 billionChina, Hong Kong SAR 90%, South Korea 5.1%, China 1.2%, Australia 1.1%
  • Wheat $1.1 billionAustralia 29%, Brazil 25%, Ukraine 20%, United States 11%

Vietnam's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).