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Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

Indonesia: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Coffee

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 11.4 million bags in 2026/27, down 8% on last year, 6% of the world's
WeatherLow risk. South Sumatra (Pagar Alam): 77 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 67% of normal, while the crop is flowering
TradeExports 8.1 million bags, 5% of the world's; imports 1.4 million bags
MarketArabica coffee $7.4/kg in October, up 1.9% on the month, down 16.9% on the year, the highest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (14,732 contracts net)
News4 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 Some weather risk. South Sumatra (Pagar Alam): 77 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 67% of normal, while the crop is flowering

Whole milk powder

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 81,000 t in 2026, up 5.2% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeImports 75,000 t, 7% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 5% bigger than last year's

Palm kernels

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 11.8 million t in 2026/27, down 3.7% on last year, 58% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of
MarketPalm kernel oil $2,287/mt in October, down 2.9% on the month, up 0.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Palm kernel meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 6.2 million t in 2026/27, down 3.8% on last year, 57% of the world's
TradeExports 5.1 million t, 65% of the world's

Palm oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 45 million t in 2026/27, down 4.3% on last year, 57% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 21.6 million t, 49% of the world's
MarketPalm oil $1,120/mt in October, down 5.1% on the month, up 7.9% on the year, the lowest since February 2026
News12 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Palm kernel oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 5.1 million t in 2026/27, down 3.8% on last year, 56% of the world's
TradeExports 1.5 million t, 46% of the world's
MarketPalm kernel oil $2,287/mt in October, down 2.9% on the month, up 0.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026

Copra

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.6 million t in 2026/27, up 0.6% on last year, 27% of the world's
TradeExports 40,000 t, 41% of the world's; imports 5,000 t, 5% of the world's
MarketCoconut oil $2,029/mt in October, down 2.4% on the month, down 20.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Coconut oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1 million t in 2026/27, up 1.2% on last year, 27% of the world's; cut 0.8% in November
TradeExports 680,000 t, 32% of the world's; imports 50,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketCoconut oil $2,029/mt in October, down 2.4% on the month, down 20.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Copra meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 524,000 t in 2026/27, up 1.2% on last year, 27% of the world's; cut 2.1% in November
TradeExports 220,000 t, 36% of the world's; imports 2,000 t
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 2.1% in November

Rice

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 33.6 million t in 2026/27, down 0.6% on last year, 6% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeImports 500,000 t
MarketThai 5% rice $489/mt in October, up 1.5% on the month, up 37.4% on the year, the highest since June 2026
News16 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peanuts

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 800,000 t in 2026/27, down 1.2% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 5,000 t; imports 500,000 t, 12% of the world's
MarketGroundnuts $1,600/mt in October, up 2.4% on the month, up 33.3% on the year, the highest since February 2025
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sugar

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.5 million t in 2026/27, down 7.4% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 100,000 t; imports 4.2 million t, 7% of the world's
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Corn (maize)

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 13.5 million t in 2026/27, up 3.1% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 5,000 t; imports 1 million t; bought 0 t of US corn (maize) in the week to Oct 29; 67,365 t shipped this marketing year (1,538 t a year earlier)
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Wheat

0
CropUSDA expects no wheat crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 450,000 t; imports 12.5 million t, 6% of the world's; bought 70,000 t of US wheat in the week to Oct 29; 247,274 t shipped this marketing year (686,066 t a year earlier)
MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybean meal

0
CropUSDA expects no soybean meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeImports 7 million t, 8% of the world's; bought 0 t of US soybean meal in the week to Oct 29; 4,629 t shipped this marketing year (5,932 t a year earlier)
MarketSoybean meal $453/mt in October, up 1.3% on the month, up 27.2% on the year, the highest since July 2024
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Natural rubber

0
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
MarketTSR20 rubber $2.55/kg in October, up 5.8% on the month, up 49.1% on the year, the highest since March 2013
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Skim milk powder

0
CropUSDA expects no skim milk powder crop to speak of in 2026
TradeImports 220,000 t, 16% of the world's

Pears

0
CropUSDA expects no pears crop to speak of in 2025/26
TradeImports 255,000 t, 14% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Bought from the US

USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.

CommodityThis weekShipped this year
wheat70,000 t247,274 ta year earlier 686,066
soybeans32,731 t232,592 ta year earlier 276,259
upland cotton3,773 bales67,891 balesa year earlier 30,231
corn0 t67,365 ta year earlier 1,538
soybean meal0 t4,629 ta year earlier 5,932
soybean oil0 t0 ta year earlier 0
pork0 t819 ta year earlier 877
beef-3 t6,586 ta year earlier 3,737

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Coal $34 billionIndia 24%, China 19%, Japan 12%, Philippines 9%
  • Palm oil $21 billionIndia 21%, Pakistan 12%, China 10%, United States 7%
  • Copper $11 billionChina 28%, Japan 21%, India 10%, South Korea 10%
  • Natural gas $8.6 billionChina 24%, Japan 22%, Singapore 22%, South Korea 18%
  • Natural rubber $3.2 billionUnited States 23%, Japan 20%, China 9.9%, India 6.6%
  • Crude oil $2.6 billionThailand 68%, Singapore 9.2%, Japan 4.2%, South Korea 4.1%
  • Cocoa $2.4 billionIndia 18%, United States 15%, Malaysia 9.6%, China 8.7%
  • Palm kernel oil $1.7 billionChina 29%, United States 19%, Brazil 16%, Russia 7.3%
  • Coffee $1.7 billionUnited States 18%, Egypt 8.2%, Malaysia 8%, Belgium-Luxembourg (...1998) 7%
  • Tin $1.7 billionChina 28%, India 19%, Singapore 12%, South Korea 11%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Crude oil $10.0 billionNigeria 25%, Saudi Arabia 21%, Angola 17%, Gabon 10%
  • Gold $4.3 billionAustralia 35%, China, Hong Kong SAR 30%, Singapore 12%, Japan 11%
  • Coal $3.6 billionAustralia 50%, Russia 25%, United States 12%, China 11%
  • Wheat $3.2 billionAustralia 27%, Canada 25%, Ukraine 16%, Russia 12%
  • Sugar $2.8 billionBrazil 60%, Thailand 21%, Australia 16%, Vietnam 1%
  • Rice $2.7 billionThailand 32%, Vietnam 28%, Pakistan 18%, Myanmar 17%
  • Soybean meal $2.3 billionBrazil 73%, Argentina 23%, United States 3.2%, Paraguay 0.8%
  • Cocoa $1.5 billionEcuador 26%, Malaysia 14%, Peru 9.1%, Côte d'Ivoire 7.6%
  • Iron ore $1.5 billionAustralia 70%, Brazil 14%, India 5.9%, United States 1.8%
  • Soybeans $1.4 billionUnited States 90%, Canada 9.1%, Argentina 0.7%, Malaysia 0.3%

Indonesia's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).