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Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

European Union: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Rapeseed (canola)

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 19.8 million t in 2026/27, down 4.4% on last year, 20% of the world's
WeatherLow risk. Mecklenburg, Germany: 7 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 42% of normal, while the crop is growing
TradeExports 500,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 7.1 million t, 35% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 Some weather risk. Mecklenburg, Germany: 7 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 42% of normal, while the crop is growing

Sunflower meal

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 4.9 million t in 2026/27, up 16.3% on last year, 20% of the world's
TradeExports 900,000 t, 9% of the world's; imports 2.7 million t, 29% of the world's
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 16% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Sunflower oil

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.8 million t in 2026/27, up 16.6% on last year, 16% of the world's
TradeExports 850,000 t, 5% of the world's; imports 2.6 million t, 18% of the world's
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 17% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Sunflower seed

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 9.7 million t in 2026/27, up 12.7% on last year, 15% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 550,000 t, 14% of the world's; imports 1.2 million t, 34% of the world's
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 13% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Peaches and nectarines

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.5 million t in 2026/27, up 11.5% on last year, 14% of the world's
TradeExports 135,000 t, 13% of the world's; imports 60,000 t, 6% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 12% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Pistachios

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 50,000 t in 2025/26, up 34.8% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 4,600 t; imports 187,100 t, 34% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 35% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Grapefruit

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 126,000 t in 2025/26, up 12.5% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 23,000 t, 4% of the world's; imports 190,000 t, 32% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 13% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Cottonseed oil

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 28,000 t in 2026/27, up 16.7% on last year
TradeExports 1,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 5,000 t, 6% of the world's
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 17% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Cottonseed meal

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 82,000 t in 2026/27, up 15.5% on last year
TradeExports 15,000 t, 6% of the world's; imports 2,000 t, 1% of the world's
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 16% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Almonds

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 208,000 t in 2026/27, up 7.3% on last year, 13% of the world's
TradeExports 25,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 275,000 t, 25% of the world's
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 7% bigger than last year's

Fish meal

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 400,000 t in 2025/26, up 5.3% on last year, 8% of the world's
TradeExports 180,000 t, 6% of the world's; imports 245,000 t, 7% of the world's
MarketFish meal $2,840/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 60.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 5% bigger than last year's

Mixed grain

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 12 million t in 2026/27, down 6.3% on last year, 96% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of

Oats

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 8 million t in 2026/27, down 10.3% on last year, 35% of the world's
TradeExports 150,000 t, 5% of the world's; imports 50,000 t, 2% of the world's
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Skim milk powder

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.5 million t in 2026, down 3.3% on last year, 30% of the world's
TradeExports 840,000 t, 35% of the world's; imports 45,000 t, 3% of the world's

Rapeseed oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 10.8 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 28% of the world's; raised 1.6% in November
TradeExports 600,000 t, 7% of the world's; imports 550,000 t, 7% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Rapeseed meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 14.7 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 27% of the world's; raised 1.6% in November
TradeExports 800,000 t, 7% of the world's; imports 800,000 t, 7% of the world's

Pork

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 22 million t in 2027, down 0.5% on last year, 18% of the world's
TradeExports 3 million t, 28% of the world's; imports 110,000 t, 1% of the world's
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
News5 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pig herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 234.5 million head in 2027, down 0.3% on last year, 18% of the world's
TradeExports 760,000 head, 8% of the world's; imports 10,000 head
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)

Wheat

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 133 million t in 2026/27, down 8.4% on last year, 16% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 31 million t, 15% of the world's; imports 6.5 million t, 3% of the world's
MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)
News10 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Oranges

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 5.6 million t in 2025/26, down 5% on last year, 12% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 310,000 t, 6% of the world's; imports 1 million t, 22% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
News29 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Whole milk powder

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 530,000 t in 2026, down 5.4% on last year, 12% of the world's
TradeExports 160,000 t, 8% of the world's; imports 10,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Chicken

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 13 million t in 2027, up 2% on last year, 11% of the world's
TradeExports 1.7 million t, 11% of the world's; imports 700,000 t, 6% of the world's
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
News10 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Beef

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 6.3 million t in 2027, down 0.6% on last year, 11% of the world's
TradeExports 530,000 t, 4% of the world's; imports 400,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
News12 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cattle herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 22.8 million head in 2027, down 0.9% on last year, 8% of the world's
TradeExports 600,000 head, 13% of the world's; imports 8,000 head
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)

Sugar

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 14.4 million t in 2026/27, down 7.5% on last year, 8% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 858,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 2.6 million t, 4% of the world's
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Walnuts

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 135,000 t in 2026/27, down 6.9% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 15,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 425,000 t, 34% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Orange juice

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 58,142 t in 2025/26, down 6.2% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 114,000 t, 9% of the world's; imports 360,000 t, 33% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybean meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 11.7 million t in 2026/27, down 1% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 600,000 t; imports 20.4 million t, 24% of the world's
MarketSoybean meal $453/mt in October, up 1.3% on the month, up 27.2% on the year, the highest since July 2024
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Corn (maize)

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 47.5 million t in 2026/27, down 16.5% on last year, 4% of the world's; cut 1% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 1.6 million t; imports 22.5 million t, 11% of the world's
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybean oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.8 million t in 2026/27, down 1.1% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 800,000 t, 5% of the world's; imports 650,000 t, 5% of the world's
MarketSoybean oil $1,546/mt in October, down 4.3% on the month, up 36.6% on the year, the lowest since March 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sorghum

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 675,000 t in 2026/27, down 20.9% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 150,000 t, 2% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 401,000 t in 2026/27, down 5.2% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 60,000 t, 7% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybeans

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.7 million t in 2026/27, down 5.3% on last year; cut 1.1% in November
TradeExports 250,000 t; imports 13.7 million t, 7% of the world's
MarketSoybeans $515/mt in October, down 1.7% on the month, up 27.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (142,727 contracts net)
News6 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peanut oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 13,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year
TradeExports 6,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 60,000 t, 16% of the world's
MarketGroundnut oil $1,850/mt in October, down 0.5% on the month, up 13.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Copra

0
CropUSDA expects no copra crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 3,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 3,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketCoconut oil $2,029/mt in October, down 2.4% on the month, down 20.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
News7 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Coconut oil

0
CropUSDA expects no coconut oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 30,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 650,000 t, 36% of the world's
MarketCoconut oil $2,029/mt in October, down 2.4% on the month, down 20.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Palm kernel oil

0
CropUSDA expects no palm kernel oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 525,000 t, 20% of the world's
MarketPalm kernel oil $2,287/mt in October, down 2.9% on the month, up 0.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026

Palm kernel meal

0
CropUSDA expects no palm kernel meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 20,000 t; imports 1.3 million t, 17% of the world's

Coffee

0
CropUSDA expects no coffee crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 5.7 million bags, 4% of the world's; imports 50 million bags, 33% of the world's
MarketArabica coffee $7.4/kg in October, up 1.9% on the month, down 16.9% on the year, the highest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (14,732 contracts net)
News26 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

European Union's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).