medium economyUNVERIFIED
Can we really predict the future? Over one million forecasts offer clues, not certainty
📍 Tel Aviv, IL·🕐 4h ago·1 outlet
Can crowds of people trading on what they believe will happen collectively predict the future? A new Tel Aviv University study of more than 1 million forecasts suggests that they often come remarkably close. But when it comes to certain events, from international conflicts to elections, the odds may tell a different story.
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Reliability
Reliability ScoreVery high
82%Independent outlets1
Statusnot yet verified
AI checknone yet
Community flags0
Score bands
Very high80–100%
A highly rated outlet, or several independent outletsHigh60–79%
One well-rated outlet so farModerate40–59%
A lower-rated or state-run outlet, or one report of something seriousLow20–39%
A low-rated outlet on a serious or sensitive storyVery low0–19%
Treat it as unconfirmedWhat moves the score
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Outlet ratingThe outlet’s rating in WorldPulse’s list of sources starts the score
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Independent outletsEach further outlet that reports the story closes 40% of the gap to 98%
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Report detailsA few points either way: a summary and a place add a little; state-run outlets on conflict, politics or security, and single reports marked high or critical, lose some
Not in the score: AI checks and reader flags. Verified is separate: two or more independent outlets and a score of at least 65%.
Very high · How we score this
Risk Score
medium risk