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Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

United States: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Pistachios

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 716,676 t in 2025/26, up 43.6% on last year, 63% of the world's
TradeExports 370,119 t, 65% of the world's; imports 5,383 t, 1% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 44% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Rapeseed (canola)

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.5 million t in 2026/27, up 15.3% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 445,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 295,000 t, 2% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 15% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Pears

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 565,000 t in 2025/26, up 22.3% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 100,000 t, 5% of the world's; imports 80,000 t, 4% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 22% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Soybeans

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 124.5 million t in 2026/27, up 7.3% on last year, 28% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 46.8 million t, 24% of the world's; imports 680,000 t
MarketSoybeans $515/mt in October, down 1.7% on the month, up 27.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (142,727 contracts net)
News15 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 7% bigger than last year's

Soybean oil

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 14.9 million t in 2026/27, up 7.8% on last year, 20% of the world's
TradeExports 181,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 318,000 t, 2% of the world's
MarketSoybean oil $1,546/mt in October, down 4.3% on the month, up 36.6% on the year, the lowest since March 2026
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 8% bigger than last year's

Soybean meal

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 59.7 million t in 2026/27, up 5.1% on last year, 20% of the world's
TradeExports 20.6 million t, 23% of the world's; imports 907,000 t, 1% of the world's
MarketSoybean meal $453/mt in October, up 1.3% on the month, up 27.2% on the year, the highest since July 2024
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 5% bigger than last year's

Apples

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 5 million t in 2025/26, up 5.4% on last year, 6% of the world's
TradeExports 890,000 t, 15% of the world's; imports 80,000 t, 1% of the world's
News56 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 5% bigger than last year's

Rapeseed oil

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 991,000 t in 2026/27, up 9.1% on last year, 3% of the world's; cut 0.5% in November
TradeExports 60,000 t; imports 3.8 million t, 44% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 9% bigger than last year's

Rapeseed meal

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.4 million t in 2026/27, up 8.5% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 15,000 t; imports 4.5 million t, 39% of the world's
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 9% bigger than last year's

Peanut oil

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 134,000 t in 2026/27, down 2.2% on last year, 2% of the world's; raised 2.3% in November
TradeExports 5,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 23,000 t, 6% of the world's
MarketGroundnut oil $1,850/mt in October, down 0.5% on the month, up 13.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 2.3% in November

Corn (maize)

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 403.7 million t in 2026/27, down 6.3% on last year, 31% of the world's; cut 0.9% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 83.2 million t, 40% of the world's; imports 635,000 t
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
News18 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Walnuts

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 616,886 t in 2026/27, down 15.9% on last year, 22% of the world's
TradeExports 460,000 t, 32% of the world's; imports 2,000 t
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Skim milk powder

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1 million t in 2026, up 3.9% on last year, 21% of the world's
TradeExports 638,000 t, 27% of the world's; imports 2,000 t

Chicken

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 22.8 million t in 2027, up 0.8% on last year, 20% of the world's
TradeExports 3 million t, 19% of the world's; imports 64,000 t
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
News19 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Beef

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 11.2 million t in 2027, down 0.5% on last year, 19% of the world's
TradeExports 1.1 million t, 8% of the world's; imports 2.8 million t, 23% of the world's
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
News28 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cattle herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 33 million head in 2027, up 1.5% on last year, 12% of the world's
TradeExports 500,000 head, 11% of the world's; imports 1.2 million head, 67% of the world's
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)

Sorghum

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 7 million t in 2026/27, down 37.3% on last year, 11% of the world's; cut 6% in November
WeatherLow risk. Western Kansas: 48 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 8.9 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 3.2 million t, 33% of the world's; imports 1,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • +10 Some weather risk. Western Kansas: 48 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 8.9 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 6% in November

Cotton

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 13.2 million bales in 2026/27, down 5.2% on last year, 11% of the world's; cut 2% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 12.3 million bales, 27% of the world's; imports 5,000 bales
MarketCotton (A Index) $2/kg in October, down 4.8% on the month, up 19% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (44,168 contracts net)
News9 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 2% in November

Pork

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 12.6 million t in 2027, up 0.7% on last year, 11% of the world's
TradeExports 3.2 million t, 30% of the world's; imports 535,000 t, 6% of the world's
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
News8 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pig herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 137.3 million head in 2027, up 1.9% on last year, 11% of the world's
TradeExports 60,000 head; imports 7.7 million head, 95% of the world's
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)

Cottonseed

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.6 million t in 2026/27, down 4.7% on last year, 9% of the world's; cut 2% in November
TradeExports 227,000 t, 24% of the world's; imports 45,000 t, 5% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 2% in November

Orange juice

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 72,000 t in 2025/26, down 0% on last year, 5% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 25,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 390,000 t, 36% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Wheat

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 41.7 million t in 2026/27, down 22.9% on last year, 5% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 20.4 million t, 10% of the world's; imports 3.9 million t, 2% of the world's
MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)
News5 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Oranges

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.2 million t in 2025/26, up 0.2% on last year, 5% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 330,000 t, 7% of the world's; imports 275,000 t, 6% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
News35 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Fish meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 243,000 t in 2025/26, down 1.2% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 115,000 t, 4% of the world's; imports 75,000 t, 2% of the world's
MarketFish meal $2,840/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 60.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peanuts

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.2 million t in 2026/27, down 30.6% on last year, 5% of the world's; cut 3.7% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 646,000 t, 14% of the world's; imports 48,000 t, 1% of the world's
MarketGroundnuts $1,600/mt in October, up 2.4% on the month, up 33.3% on the year, the highest since February 2025
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 3.7% in November

Oats

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1 million t in 2026/27, down 0.8% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 29,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 1.2 million t, 44% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sugar

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 8 million t in 2026/27, down 4.6% on last year, 4% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 23,000 t; imports 3 million t, 5% of the world's
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Grapefruit

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 282,000 t in 2025/26, up 4.1% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 25,000 t, 4% of the world's; imports 33,000 t, 6% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 390,000 t in 2026/27, up 0.3% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 32,000 t, 12% of the world's

Cottonseed oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 122,000 t in 2026/27, up 0.8% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 18,000 t, 30% of the world's; imports 1,000 t, 1% of the world's

Rye

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 221,000 t in 2026/27, down 29.8% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 5,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 229,000 t, 76% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peanut meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 161,000 t in 2026/27, down 4.2% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 9,000 t, 5% of the world's; imports 2,000 t, 2% of the world's

Sunflower seed

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1 million t in 2026/27, down 1.3% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 34,000 t; imports 175,000 t, 5% of the world's
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Whole milk powder

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 61,000 t in 2026, up 1.7% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 43,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 14,000 t, 1% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Rice

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 5 million t in 2026/27, down 23.7% on last year
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 2.5 million t, 4% of the world's; imports 1.6 million t, 3% of the world's
MarketThai 5% rice $489/mt in October, up 1.5% on the month, up 37.4% on the year, the highest since June 2026
News14 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Olive oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 14,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year
TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 450,000 t, 35% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Coconut oil

0
CropUSDA expects no coconut oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 5,000 t; imports 470,000 t, 26% of the world's
MarketCoconut oil $2,029/mt in October, down 2.4% on the month, down 20.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Palm kernel oil

0
CropUSDA expects no palm kernel oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 1,000 t; imports 435,000 t, 17% of the world's
MarketPalm kernel oil $2,287/mt in October, down 2.9% on the month, up 0.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026

Coffee

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 50,000 bags in 2026/27, down 0% on last year
TradeImports 26.9 million bags, 18% of the world's
MarketArabica coffee $7.4/kg in October, up 1.9% on the month, down 16.9% on the year, the highest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (14,732 contracts net)
News30 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Crude oil $124 billionNetherlands 13%, South Korea 12%, Canada 8.7%, United Kingdom 8.5%
  • Natural gas $46 billionNetherlands 11%, Mexico 9%, France 7.1%, Japan 6.9%
  • Soybeans $25 billionChina 51%, Mexico 9.4%, Indonesia 5.1%, Japan 4.8%
  • Gold $23 billionSwitzerland 52%, Singapore 9.6%, India 7%, United Kingdom 5.6%
  • Coal $20 billionIndia 22%, Japan 10%, China 8.7%, Brazil 7.5%
  • Corn (maize) $13 billionMexico 35%, Japan 22%, Colombia 11%, South Korea 4.8%
  • Beef $9.0 billionSouth Korea 24%, China 17%, Japan 14%, Mexico 12%
  • Wheat $6.7 billionMexico 16%, Philippines 13%, China 10%, Japan 9.4%
  • Pork $6.5 billionMexico 36%, Japan 16%, South Korea 10%, Canada 6.4%
  • Soybean meal $6.4 billionPhilippines 21%, Mexico 13%, Colombia 9.9%, Canada 8.6%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Crude oil $169 billionCanada 59%, Mexico 7.4%, Saudi Arabia 4.9%, Venezuela 3.5%
  • Gold $27 billionSwitzerland 33%, Canada 21%, Mexico 13%, United Kingdom 6.2%
  • Aluminium $11 billionCanada 68%, United Arab Emirates 11%, Argentina 4.3%, Bahrain 3.8%
  • Beef $11 billionAustralia 27%, Canada 24%, Mexico 17%, New Zealand 11%
  • Coffee $8.8 billionBrazil 22%, Colombia 16%, Switzerland 13%, Canada 6.9%
  • Copper $8.4 billionChile 70%, Canada 17%, Peru 6.7%, Dem. Rep. of the Congo 3.6%
  • Natural gas $7.1 billionCanada 84%, Trinidad and Tobago 7.1%, Nigeria 5.5%, Norway 1.4%
  • Silver $5.8 billionMexico 45%, Canada 20%, South Korea 5.4%, United Kingdom 4.6%
  • Rapeseed oil $4.2 billionCanada 98%, Australia 0.4%, United Arab Emirates 0.4%, Netherlands 0.3%
  • Potash $3.6 billionCanada 83%, Russia 13%, Israel 2.7%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 1%

United States's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).