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Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

Turkey: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Wheat

15· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 23.5 million t in 2026/27, up 39.9% on last year, 3% of the world's; raised 2.2% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 6 million t, 3% of the world's; imports 3.5 million t, 2% of the world's
MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 15
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 40% bigger than last year's: room for a cut
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 2.2% in November

Cherries

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1 million t in 2026/27, up 246.3% on last year, 18% of the world's
TradeExports 70,000 t, 7% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 246% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Olive oil

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 400,000 t in 2026/27, up 90.5% on last year, 12% of the world's
TradeExports 150,000 t, 11% of the world's; imports 30,000 t, 2% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 91% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Tangerines and mandarins

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.2 million t in 2025/26, up 10% on last year, 6% of the world's
TradeExports 1 million t, 21% of the world's; imports 30,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 10% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Barley

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 8.8 million t in 2026/27, up 72.5% on last year, 6% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 50,000 t; imports 150,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 73% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Peaches and nectarines

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.2 million t in 2026/27, up 86.8% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 200,000 t, 20% of the world's; imports 100 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 87% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Sunflower seed

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.8 million t in 2026/27, up 44% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 100,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 1 million t, 29% of the world's
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 44% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Soybean oil

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 570,000 t in 2026/27, up 19.2% on last year
TradeExports 520,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketSoybean oil $1,546/mt in October, down 4.3% on the month, up 36.6% on the year, the lowest since March 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 19% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Almonds

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 31,000 t in 2026/27, up 6.9% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 35,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 80,000 t, 7% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 7% bigger than last year's

Walnuts

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 50,000 t in 2026/27, up 6.4% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 35,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 160,000 t, 13% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Sugar

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.1 million t in 2026/27, up 5.2% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 75,000 t; imports 150,000 t
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 5% bigger than last year's

Pistachios

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 120,000 t in 2025/26, down 68.8% on last year, 11% of the world's
TradeExports 47,600 t, 8% of the world's; imports 60,300 t, 11% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sunflower meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.3 million t in 2026/27, up 1% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 75,000 t; imports 1.1 million t, 12% of the world's

Table grapes

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.5 million t in 2025/26, down 23.4% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 95,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 2,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sunflower oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.1 million t in 2026/27, up 1% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 1.1 million t, 7% of the world's; imports 1.5 million t, 11% of the world's
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Rye

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 300,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 128,000 t in 2026/27, down 30.8% on last year, 3% of the world's; cut 14.1% in November
TradeExports 2,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 3,000 t, 4% of the world's
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 14.1% in November

Cottonseed meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 388,000 t in 2026/27, down 31.2% on last year, 3% of the world's; cut 14% in November
TradeExports 10,000 t, 4% of the world's; imports 20,000 t, 11% of the world's
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 14% in November

Chicken

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3 million t in 2027, up 4.7% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 525,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Grapefruit

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 150,000 t in 2025/26, down 0% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 90,000 t, 14% of the world's; imports 1,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pears

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 461,000 t in 2025/26, down 29.1% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 45,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 100 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 669,000 t in 2026/27, down 32.9% on last year, 2% of the world's; cut 14.6% in November
TradeExports 5,000 t; imports 50,000 t, 6% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 14.6% in November

Cotton

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.1 million bales in 2026/27, down 32.9% on last year, 2% of the world's; cut 14.6% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 600,000 bales, 1% of the world's; imports 5.3 million bales, 12% of the world's; bought 18,290 bales of US cotton in the week to Oct 29; 129,668 bales shipped this marketing year (126,339 bales a year earlier)
MarketCotton (A Index) $2/kg in October, down 4.8% on the month, up 19% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (44,168 contracts net)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 14.6% in November

Oats

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 350,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeImports 35,000 t, 1% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Tea

0
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
MarketTea (three-auction average) $2.88/kg in October, up 0.7% on the month, down 4.3% on the year, the highest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Bought from the US

USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.

CommodityThis weekShipped this year
soybeans115,000 t110,332 ta year earlier 230,795
upland cotton18,290 bales129,668 balesa year earlier 126,339
soybean meal0 t0 ta year earlier 0

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Gold $4.4 billionUnited Kingdom 39%, United Arab Emirates 38%, India 6.1%, Switzerland 5.3%
  • Sunflower oil $1.3 billionIraq 18%, Djibouti 18%, Iran 10%, Syria 8.7%
  • Crude oil $1.2 billionIndia 50%, United Kingdom 49%, Netherlands 1.2%, Bulgaria 0%
  • Copper $891 millionBulgaria 43%, China 37%, Serbia 11%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 2.5%
  • Olive oil $709 millionUnited States 26%, Spain 17%, Italy 13%, Israel 5.4%
  • Chicken $615 millionIraq 70%, Uzbekistan 4%, Mauritania 3.2%, Congo 2.6%
  • Wheat $600 millionIraq 39%, Algeria 23%, Italy 20%, Tunisia 4.4%
  • Soybean meal $541 millionIran 33%, Iraq 29%, United States 12%, Syria 7.8%
  • Tangerines and mandarins $498 millionRussia 46%, Ukraine 13%, Iraq 12%, Serbia 3.7%
  • Cotton $474 millionBangladesh 20%, Pakistan 17%, China 16%, Vietnam 8.8%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Gold $15 billionSwitzerland 48%, United Arab Emirates 36%, United Kingdom 4.5%, United States 2.6%
  • Coal $4.6 billionRussia 56%, Australia 15%, Colombia 15%, United States 12%
  • Natural gas $4.6 billionAzerbaijan 66%, United States 31%, Egypt 1%, Spain 1%
  • Aluminium $3.7 billionUnited Arab Emirates 24%, Russia 22%, India 13%, Iran 12%
  • Copper $3.5 billionKazakhstan 39%, Bulgaria 20%, Russia 14%, Serbia 12%
  • Crude oil $2.8 billionKazakhstan 43%, Norway 16%, Nigeria 14%, Italy 9.5%
  • Soybeans $1.6 billionBrazil 62%, United States 16%, Ukraine 15%, Canada 4.7%
  • Cotton $1.5 billionBrazil 31%, United States 26%, Greece 14%, Azerbaijan 10%
  • Wheat $1.3 billionRussia 87%, Ukraine 9.7%, Syria 1.1%, Iraq 0.6%
  • Sunflower oil $1.2 billionRussia 62%, Ukraine 30%, Serbia 3.1%, Bosnia Herzegovina 2.2%

Turkey's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).