Skip to main content

Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

Russia: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Rapeseed (canola)

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 7 million t in 2026/27, up 27.3% on last year, 7% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 1.5 million t, 7% of the world's; imports 40,000 t
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 27% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Rapeseed meal

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.9 million t in 2026/27, up 14% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 1.1 million t, 9% of the world's; imports 20,000 t
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 14% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Rapeseed oil

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.9 million t in 2026/27, up 14% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 1.8 million t, 20% of the world's; imports 150,000 t, 2% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 14% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Corn (maize)

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 16.5 million t in 2026/27, up 11.5% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 3.5 million t, 2% of the world's; imports 50,000 t
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 12% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Fish meal

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 170,000 t in 2025/26, up 6.3% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 140,000 t, 4% of the world's; imports 2,000 t
MarketFish meal $2,840/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 60.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Sunflower seed

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 20.4 million t in 2026/27, up 16.6% on last year, 32% of the world's; cut 2.9% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 600,000 t, 15% of the world's; imports 50,000 t, 1% of the world's
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
News4 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 17% bigger than last year's: room for a cut
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 2.9% in November

Sunflower oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 7.6 million t in 2026/27, up 9.6% on last year, 32% of the world's; cut 3.2% in November
TradeExports 4.9 million t, 31% of the world's; imports 1,000 t
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
News4 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 10% bigger than last year's
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 3.2% in November

Sunflower meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 7.5 million t in 2026/27, up 9.6% on last year, 30% of the world's; cut 3.2% in November
TradeExports 2.6 million t, 25% of the world's; imports 5,000 t
Why 0
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 10% bigger than last year's
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 3.2% in November

Oats

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.9 million t in 2026/27, down 23.7% on last year, 13% of the world's
TradeExports 300,000 t, 10% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Barley

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 19 million t in 2026/27, down 2.1% on last year, 12% of the world's; cut 2.6% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 3.2 million t, 10% of the world's; imports 50,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 2.6% in November

Wheat

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 88 million t in 2026/27, down 2.5% on last year, 11% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 39 million t, 19% of the world's; imports 300,000 t
MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Rye

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 850,000 t in 2026/27, down 15% on last year, 8% of the world's
TradeExports 25,000 t, 8% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cherries

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 318,800 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 6% of the world's
TradeExports 50 t; imports 105,000 t, 12% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pig herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 60.6 million head in 2027, up 0.2% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 300,000 head, 3% of the world's
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)

Chicken

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 4.9 million t in 2027, down 1% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 190,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 375,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sugar

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 6.3 million t in 2026/27, down 10.7% on last year, 3% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 551,000 t; imports 10,000 t
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pork

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 4.1 million t in 2027, up 0.6% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 240,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 8,000 t
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cattle herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 6.4 million head in 2027, up 0.2% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 20,000 head; imports 10,000 head
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)

Skim milk powder

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 112,000 t in 2026, down 0.9% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 22,000 t; imports 50,000 t, 4% of the world's

Beef

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.3 million t in 2027, down 0.8% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 40,000 t; imports 340,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Butter

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 275,000 t in 2026, down 0.7% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 1,000 t; imports 120,000 t, 17% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybeans

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 8 million t in 2026/27, down 11.1% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 1.5 million t; imports 400,000 t
MarketSoybeans $515/mt in October, down 1.7% on the month, up 27.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (142,727 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybean meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 5 million t in 2026/27, down 3.8% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 750,000 t; imports 75,000 t
MarketSoybean meal $453/mt in October, up 1.3% on the month, up 27.2% on the year, the highest since July 2024
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybean oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.1 million t in 2026/27, down 3.8% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 700,000 t, 5% of the world's; imports 55,000 t
MarketSoybean oil $1,546/mt in October, down 4.3% on the month, up 36.6% on the year, the lowest since March 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Whole milk powder

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 55,000 t in 2026, down 0% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 2,000 t; imports 37,000 t, 4% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pears

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 230,000 t in 2025/26, down 0% on last year
TradeExports 400 t; imports 210,000 t, 11% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peaches and nectarines

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 41,100 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year
TradeExports 200 t; imports 360,000 t, 35% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Table grapes

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 30,000 t in 2025/26, down 0% on last year
TradeExports 500 t; imports 400,000 t, 10% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Oranges

0
CropUSDA expects no oranges crop to speak of in 2025/26
TradeExports 3,000 t; imports 570,000 t, 13% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Tangerines and mandarins

0
CropUSDA expects no tangerines and mandarins crop to speak of in 2025/26
TradeExports 2,000 t; imports 1.1 million t, 27% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Lemons and limes

0
CropUSDA expects no lemons and limes crop to speak of in 2025/26
TradeImports 250,000 t, 10% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Grapefruit

0
CropUSDA expects no grapefruit crop to speak of in 2025/26
TradeExports 1,000 t; imports 125,000 t, 21% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Crude oil $124 billionChina 50%, India 43%, Hungary 1.9%, Slovakia 1.7%
  • Natural gas $39 billionChina 34%, Japan 9.3%, France 8.6%, Hungary 7.5%
  • Coal $22 billionChina 47%, India 18%, Turkey 11%, South Korea 10%
  • Gold $12 billionArmenia 48%, China, Hong Kong SAR 38%, Switzerland 5.8%, Kazakhstan 4.4%
  • Wheat $9.0 billionEgypt 34%, Turkey 13%, Saudi Arabia 6.5%, Kenya 5.6%
  • Aluminium $7.3 billionChina 52%, South Korea 12%, Turkey 11%, Japan 2.3%
  • Copper $5.1 billionChina 73%, Turkey 9.8%, Kazakhstan 8.6%, Egypt 3.8%
  • Potash $4.6 billionBrazil 35%, China 27%, United States 10%, Indonesia 7.7%
  • Sunflower oil $4.4 billionIndia 45%, Turkey 17%, China 15%, Egypt 11%
  • Urea $3.2 billionBrazil 17%, United States 14%, India 14%, Mexico 7.6%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Cocoa $854 millionEstonia 30%, Indonesia 16%, Netherlands 16%, Malaysia 10%
  • Palm oil $832 millionIndonesia 65%, Estonia 34%, Turkey 0.4%, Malaysia 0.4%
  • Coffee $721 millionBrazil 37%, Indonesia 15%, Netherlands 8.2%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 7.6%
  • Soybeans $604 millionBrazil 80%, Paraguay 17%, Romania 3%, China 0%
  • Tangerines and mandarins $545 millionTurkey 42%, Egypt 19%, China 17%, South Africa 11%
  • Beef $469 millionBrazil 56%, Paraguay 16%, Colombia 8.8%, India 7.8%
  • Table grapes $390 millionUzbekistan 39%, Turkey 16%, Egypt 13%, India 8.4%
  • Iron ore $380 millionKazakhstan 100%, China 0%, Turkey 0%
  • Tea $349 millionSri Lanka 39%, India 21%, China 17%, Kenya 13%
  • Peaches and nectarines $344 millionTurkey 46%, Uzbekistan 23%, Azerbaijan 20%, China 5.8%

Russia's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).