For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.
1 supply risk our sources aren't covering.
CropUSDA: 4.7 million t in 2025/26, down 2.8% on last year, 10% of the world's
WeatherMedium risk. North Veracruz (Álamo): 75 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3.3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 49,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 30,000 t
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
News5 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 30
- +25 Medium weather risk. North Veracruz (Álamo): 75 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3.3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
- +5 Orange fell 5.1% in October: the market isn't paying for the weather risk
Supply risk not in the news
CropUSDA: 85,000 t in 2025/26, down 1.8% on last year, 6% of the world's
WeatherMedium risk. North Veracruz (Álamo): 75 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3.3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 81,000 t, 6% of the world's; imports 1,600 t
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 30
- +25 Medium weather risk. North Veracruz (Álamo): 75 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3.3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
- +5 Orange fell 5.1% in October: the market isn't paying for the weather risk
CropUSDA: 4.1 million bags in 2026/27, up 1.3% on last year, 2% of the world's
WeatherMedium risk. Coatepec, Veracruz: 75 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 3.4 million bags, 2% of the world's; imports 2.5 million bags, 2% of the world's
MarketArabica coffee $7.4/kg in October, up 1.9% on the month, down 16.9% on the year, the highest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (14,732 contracts net)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 25
- +25 Medium weather risk. Coatepec, Veracruz: 75 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
CropUSDA: 180,000 t in 2025/26, up 12.5% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 140,000 t, 4% of the world's; imports 5,000 t
MarketFish meal $2,840/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 60.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
- +10 USDA expects a crop 13% bigger than last year's: room for a cut
CropUSDA: 5.5 million t in 2026/27, down 0.7% on last year, 3% of the world's
WeatherLow risk. Veracruz cane (Córdoba): 49 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.7 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 949,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 30,000 t
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
- +10 Some weather risk. Veracruz cane (Córdoba): 49 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.7 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
CropUSDA: 227,000 t in 2026/27, up 17% on last year
TradeImports 52,000 t, 6% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
- +10 USDA expects a crop 17% bigger than last year's: room for a cut
CropUSDA: 3.6 million t in 2026/27, up 5.9% on last year, 6% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 1,000 t; imports 400,000 t, 5% of the world's; bought 2,616 t of US sorghum in the week to Oct 29; 20,950 t shipped this marketing year (76,076 t a year earlier)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
- +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's
CropUSDA: 3.4 million t in 2025/26, up 3% on last year, 34% of the world's
TradeExports 780,000 t, 32% of the world's; imports 8,000 t
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 489,000 t in 2025/26, up 1.9% on last year, 7% of the world's
TradeExports 10,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 4,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 2.4 million t in 2027, up 0.4% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 430,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 285,000 t, 2% of the world's; bought 1,277 t of US beef in the week to Oct 29; 59,003 t shipped this marketing year (56,397 t a year earlier)
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
News5 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 4.4 million t in 2027, up 1.9% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 9,000 t; imports 1.1 million t, 9% of the world's
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 8.5 million head in 2027, up 1.2% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 625,000 head, 14% of the world's; imports 10,000 head
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
CropUSDA: 125,000 t in 2026, down 0% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 2,000 t; imports 7,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 495,000 t in 2026, up 2.1% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 7,000 t; imports 200,000 t, 8% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 255,000 t in 2026, up 0.8% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 1,000 t; imports 40,000 t, 6% of the world's
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 14.3 million t in 2026, up 2% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 35,000 t, 2% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 24 million t in 2026/27, down 3.6% on last year, 2% of the world's; cut 2% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 20,000 t; imports 26.7 million t, 13% of the world's; bought 381,323 t of US corn (maize) in the week to Oct 29; 4.3 million t shipped this marketing year (3.9 million t a year earlier)
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
- -10 USDA already cut its estimate 2% in November
CropUSDA: 5.5 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 1,000 t; imports 3.3 million t, 4% of the world's; bought 52,505 t of US soybean meal in the week to Oct 29; 202,753 t shipped this marketing year (190,104 t a year earlier)
MarketSoybean meal $453/mt in October, up 1.3% on the month, up 27.2% on the year, the highest since July 2024
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 1.3 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 40,000 t; imports 200,000 t, 2% of the world's; bought 184 t of US soybean oil in the week to Oct 29; 1,100 t shipped this marketing year (10,259 t a year earlier)
MarketSoybean oil $1,546/mt in October, down 4.3% on the month, up 36.6% on the year, the lowest since March 2026
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 21.1 million head in 2027, up 1.9% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeImports 15,000 head
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
CropUSDA: 540,000 t in 2026/27, up 3.8% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 5,000 t; imports 275,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 779,000 t in 2026/27, up 3.9% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeImports 5,000 t
CropUSDA: 391,000 t in 2025/26, down 1.9% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 200,000 t, 5% of the world's; imports 130,000 t, 3% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 1.5 million t in 2027, up 3.1% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 240,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 1.8 million t, 19% of the world's; bought 16,636 t of US pork in the week to Oct 29; 679,781 t shipped this marketing year (539,929 t a year earlier)
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 50,000 t in 2026, down 0% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeImports 390,000 t, 28% of the world's
CropUSDA: 807,000 t in 2025/26, up 3.2% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 700 t; imports 305,000 t, 5% of the world's
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 255,000 t in 2026/27, down 4.3% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 200 t; imports 45,000 t, 4% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 95,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year
TradeImports 175,000 t, 6% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 75,000 t in 2026/27, down 11.8% on last year
TradeExports 30,000 t; imports 240,000 t, 6% of the world's
MarketGroundnuts $1,600/mt in October, up 2.4% on the month, up 33.3% on the year, the highest since February 2025
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 1,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year
TradeImports 1.4 million t, 7% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA expects no cottonseed oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeImports 20,000 t, 26% of the world's
CropUSDA expects no cottonseed meal crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeImports 20,000 t, 11% of the world's
Bought from the US
USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.
| Commodity | This week | Shipped this year |
|---|
| corn | 381,323 t | 4,319,221 ta year earlier 3,949,176 |
| soybean meal | 52,505 t | 202,753 ta year earlier 190,104 |
| wheat | 42,250 t | 1,896,426 ta year earlier 1,866,023 |
| pork | 16,636 t | 679,781 ta year earlier 539,929 |
| rice | 8,490 t | 123,401 ta year earlier 74,405 |
| sorghum | 2,616 t | 20,950 ta year earlier 76,076 |
| beef | 1,277 t | 59,003 ta year earlier 56,397 |
| soybean oil | 184 t | 1,100 ta year earlier 10,259 |
| soybeans | -37 t | 783,841 ta year earlier 1,199,769 |
| upland cotton | -3,139 bales | 162,253 balesa year earlier 150,017 |
Who buys its commodities
Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).
- Crude oil $27 billionUnited States 47%, Taiwan 16%, Spain 16%, South Korea 7.6%
- Gold $8.2 billionUnited States 42%, Switzerland 25%, United Kingdom 21%, Canada 3%
- Copper $4.1 billionChina 85%, United States 3.8%, Philippines 2.5%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 2.4%
- Silver $3.1 billionUnited States 84%, Japan 11%, Canada 2.3%, United Kingdom 1.4%
- Beef $2.0 billionUnited States 88%, Canada 5.8%, Japan 3.9%, China, Hong Kong SAR 0.9%
- Lemons and limes $871 millionUnited States 93%, Canada 4.6%, South Korea 0.4%, Netherlands 0.3%
- Pork $685 millionJapan 71%, United States 22%, South Korea 5.1%, Singapore 0.8%
- Orange juice $674 millionUnited States 77%, Netherlands 7.8%, Japan 7.2%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 2.1%
- Table grapes $634 millionUnited States 87%, Canada 9.8%, Japan 1.3%, New Zealand 0.5%
- Coffee $570 millionUnited States 61%, Switzerland 5.8%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 5.1%, France 4.8%
Where its commodities come from
Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.
- Corn (maize) $4.7 billionUnited States 100%, Brazil 0.2%, Chile 0%, Thailand 0%
- Natural gas $4.2 billionUnited States 99%, Indonesia 0.5%, Singapore 0.1%, China 0%
- Copper $3.1 billionUnited States 93%, Chile 5.2%, Peru 1.2%, Ecuador 0.2%
- Soybeans $3.0 billionUnited States 77%, Brazil 23%, Spain 0%
- Aluminium $3.0 billionUnited States 25%, United Arab Emirates 19%, South Africa 16%, India 12%
- Pork $2.9 billionUnited States 81%, Canada 15%, Brazil 3.5%, Chile 0.3%
- Beef $1.6 billionUnited States 65%, Brazil 14%, Nicaragua 9.3%, Canada 8.6%
- Chicken $1.4 billionUnited States 57%, Brazil 38%, Chile 5.1%, Poland 0%
- Wheat $1.3 billionUnited States 86%, Canada 14%, France 0.7%
- Cheese $1.1 billionUnited States 83%, Netherlands 5.3%, Chile 3.1%, New Zealand 2.6%
Mexico's country page
The record
Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.
| Call | Calls | USDA cut | Raised | Unchanged |
|---|
| no cut expected | 403 | 30 | 32 | 341 |
| cut possible | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sources
Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.
The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).