Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

India: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Sugar

10· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 33.6 million t in 2026/27, up 12% on last year, 18% of the world's

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeExports 3.6 million t, 6% of the world's; imports 2.4 million t, 4% of the world's

MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)

News37 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Why 10

+10 USDA expects a crop 12% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Sorghum

5· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 4.7 million t in 2026/27, up 7.9% on last year, 8% of the world's

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeExports 50,000 t

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Why 5

+5 USDA expects a crop 8% bigger than last year's

Butter

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 7.4 million t in 2026, up 3.4% on last year, 58% of the world's

TradeExports 45,000 t, 4% of the world's; imports 1,000 t

News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

After milk and curd, prices of ghee, butter and paneer too up in Karnataka

Millet

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 12.8 million t in 2026/27, down 3.2% on last year, 44% of the world's

TradeNo exports or imports to speak of

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Milk

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 221.4 million t in 2026, up 2.3% on last year, 32% of the world's

TradeExports 28,000 t, 1% of the world's; imports 1,000 t

News48 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed meal

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 4.2 million t in 2026/27, down 0.5% on last year, 31% of the world's; cut 0.5% in November

TradeExports 20,000 t, 7% of the world's; imports 70,000 t, 37% of the world's

Cottonseed oil

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 1.3 million t in 2026/27, down 0.5% on last year, 29% of the world's; cut 0.5% in November

TradeImports 5,000 t, 6% of the world's

Rice

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 147 million t in 2026/27, down 4.6% on last year, 28% of the world's

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeExports 23 million t, 38% of the world's

MarketThai 5% rice $489/mt in October, up 1.5% on the month, up 37.4% on the year, the highest since June 2026

News23 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cattle herds

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 72.5 million head in 2027, up 0.6% on last year, 26% of the world's

TradeNo exports or imports to speak of

MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)

Cottonseed

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 10 million t in 2026/27, down 1.3% on last year, 25% of the world's; cut 2.1% in November

TradeNo exports or imports to speak of

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Why 0

-10 USDA already cut its estimate 2.1% in November

Peanut meal

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 1.7 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 22% of the world's

TradeExports 50,000 t, 30% of the world's

Peanut oil

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 1.3 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 21% of the world's

TradeExports 100,000 t, 23% of the world's

MarketGroundnut oil $1,850/mt in October, down 0.5% on the month, up 13.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cotton

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 23.5 million bales in 2026/27, down 1.3% on last year, 20% of the world's; cut 2.1% in November

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeExports 1.5 million bales, 3% of the world's; imports 3.3 million bales, 7% of the world's; bought 5,100 bales of US cotton in the week to Oct 29; 267,715 bales shipped this marketing year (239,448 bales a year earlier)

MarketCotton (A Index) $2/kg in October, down 4.8% on the month, up 19% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (44,168 contracts net)

News6 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Why 0

-10 USDA already cut its estimate 2.1% in November

Skim milk powder

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 790,000 t in 2026, up 2.6% on last year, 16% of the world's

TradeExports 8,000 t; imports 1,000 t

Copra meal

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 310,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 16% of the world's

TradeImports 150,000 t, 27% of the world's

Copra

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 935,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 16% of the world's

TradeExports 20,000 t, 20% of the world's; imports 10,000 t, 9% of the world's

MarketCoconut oil $2,029/mt in October, down 2.4% on the month, down 20.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026

News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peanuts

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 7.5 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 15% of the world's

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeExports 1.1 million t, 23% of the world's

MarketGroundnuts $1,600/mt in October, up 2.4% on the month, up 33.3% on the year, the highest since February 2025

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Coconut oil

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 570,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 15% of the world's

TradeExports 15,000 t

MarketCoconut oil $2,029/mt in October, down 2.4% on the month, down 20.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Wheat

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 121 million t in 2026/27, up 2.6% on last year, 15% of the world's

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeExports 2 million t, 1% of the world's; imports 100,000 t

MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)

News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Rapeseed (canola)

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 12.4 million t in 2026/27, up 3.3% on last year, 12% of the world's

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeNo exports or imports to speak of

MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Rapeseed meal

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 6.7 million t in 2026/27, up 4.1% on last year, 12% of the world's

TradeExports 1.4 million t, 12% of the world's; imports 5,000 t

Rapeseed oil

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 4.3 million t in 2026/27, up 4.2% on last year, 11% of the world's

TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 40,000 t

MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Table grapes

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 3.2 million t in 2025/26, up 2.7% on last year, 11% of the world's

TradeExports 300,000 t, 7% of the world's; imports 25,000 t

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Beef

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 5 million t in 2027, up 2% on last year, 8% of the world's

TradeExports 2 million t, 14% of the world's; bought 0 t of US beef in the week to Oct 29; 21 t shipped this marketing year (0 t a year earlier)

MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)

News4 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Corn (maize)

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 50 million t in 2026/27, down 9.2% on last year, 4% of the world's

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeExports 1 million t; imports 100,000 t

MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)

News5 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Coffee

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 6.1 million bags in 2026/27, down 4.5% on last year, 3% of the world's

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeExports 6.2 million bags, 4% of the world's; imports 1.4 million bags

MarketArabica coffee $7.4/kg in October, up 1.9% on the month, down 16.9% on the year, the highest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (14,732 contracts net)

News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Apples

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 2.6 million t in 2025/26, up 2.2% on last year, 3% of the world's

TradeExports 40,000 t; imports 575,000 t, 10% of the world's

News4 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybean meal

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 8.1 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 3% of the world's; raised 1% in November

TradeExports 1 million t, 1% of the world's; imports 100,000 t

MarketSoybean meal $453/mt in October, up 1.3% on the month, up 27.2% on the year, the highest since July 2024

News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

India’s April-August oilmeal exports fall 28.5% as soymeal loses to Brazil, Argentina

Soybeans

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 10.7 million t in 2026/27, down 3% on last year, 2% of the world's

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

TradeExports 25,000 t; imports 900,000 t

MarketSoybeans $515/mt in October, down 1.7% on the month, up 27.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (142,727 contracts net)

News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

India’s April-August oilmeal exports fall 28.5% as soymeal loses to Brazil, Argentina

Soybean oil

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 1.8 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 2% of the world's; raised 1.1% in November

TradeExports 15,000 t; imports 5 million t, 37% of the world's

MarketSoybean oil $1,546/mt in October, down 4.3% on the month, up 36.6% on the year, the lowest since March 2026

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pears

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 314,000 t in 2025/26, up 0.3% on last year, 1% of the world's

TradeExports 200 t; imports 35,000 t, 2% of the world's

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Walnuts

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 33,000 t in 2026/27, down 1.5% on last year, 1% of the world's

TradeExports 1,500 t; imports 75,000 t, 6% of the world's

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Barley

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 1.8 million t in 2026/27, down 6.4% on last year, 1% of the world's

TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 150,000 t

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Palm oil

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 305,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year

TradeExports 50,000 t; imports 8.4 million t, 20% of the world's

MarketPalm oil $1,120/mt in October, down 5.1% on the month, up 7.9% on the year, the lowest since February 2026

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sunflower oil

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 38,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year

TradeExports 60,000 t; imports 3.9 million t, 27% of the world's

MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Almonds

0· no cut expected

CropUSDA: 3,900 t in 2026/27, down 2.5% on last year

TradeImports 180,000 t, 16% of the world's

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Tea

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

MarketTea (three-auction average) $2.88/kg in October, up 0.7% on the month, down 4.3% on the year, the highest since August 2026

News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Natural rubber

WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions

MarketTSR20 rubber $2.55/kg in October, up 5.8% on the month, up 49.1% on the year, the highest since March 2013

News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Rubber price touches record ₹300 a kg

Pistachios

CropUSDA expects no pistachios crop to speak of in 2025/26

TradeImports 42,100 t, 8% of the world's

NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Bought from the US

USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.

Commodity	This week	Shipped this year
upland cotton	5,100 bales	267,715 balesa year earlier 239,448
beef	0 t	21 ta year earlier 0

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

Rice $12 billionSaudi Arabia 12%, Iraq 7.8%, Benin 6%, Iran 5.9%
Aluminium $4.7 billionSouth Korea 13%, Malaysia 11%, Turkey 10%, Mexico 7.5%
Beef $3.7 billionEgypt 17%, Vietnam 16%, Malaysia 16%, Iraq 10%
Iron ore $2.9 billionChina 90%, Indonesia 3%, Malaysia 2.5%, Kenya 1.5%
Sugar $2.2 billionLibya 14%, Sudan 13%, Somalia 11%, Sri Lanka 9.8%
Coffee $1.2 billionItaly 23%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 16%, Belgium-Luxembourg (...1998) 6.9%, Switzerland 6.3%
Soybean meal $975 millionIran 15%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 12%, United Arab Emirates 12%, Bangladesh 9.5%
Cotton $916 millionBangladesh 72%, China 14%, Vietnam 7.9%, Indonesia 2.1%
Lead $877 millionSingapore 34%, South Korea 27%, Bangladesh 7.3%, Vietnam 7.1%
Peanuts $858 millionIndonesia 36%, Vietnam 15%, Malaysia 12%, Philippines 4.2%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

Crude oil $142 billionRussia 37%, Iraq 20%, Saudi Arabia 14%, United Arab Emirates 9.5%
Gold $58 billionSwitzerland 33%, United Arab Emirates 28%, South Africa 11%, Peru 7.2%
Coal $32 billionAustralia 34%, Indonesia 25%, United States 13%, Russia 12%
Natural gas $15 billionQatar 43%, United States 16%, United Arab Emirates 11%, Angola 7.1%
Copper $8.9 billionJapan 22%, Chile 19%, Zambia 19%, Indonesia 13%
Palm oil $8.3 billionIndonesia 53%, Malaysia 34%, Thailand 8.9%, Papua New Guinea 2.2%
Silver $5.6 billionUnited Kingdom 42%, United Arab Emirates 35%, Switzerland 4.1%, Kazakhstan 3.1%
Soybean oil $4.1 billionArgentina 66%, Brazil 18%, Russia 6.9%, Nepal 2.3%
Sunflower oil $3.3 billionRussia 60%, Ukraine 23%, Argentina 11%, Romania 1.8%
DAP fertilizer $2.8 billionSaudi Arabia 40%, Morocco 29%, China 18%, Australia 4.2%

India's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

Commodity	Price	Month	Year
Energy
Crude oil, average	108.5 $/bbl	+6.1%	+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent	125 $/bbl	+7%	+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai	102.7 $/bbl	+10.1%	+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI	97.7 $/bbl	+0.8%	+62.3%
Coal, Australian	152.3 $/mt	+3.5%	+41.7%
Coal, South African	100 $/mt	+1.8%	+9.2%
Natural gas, US	2.96 $/mmbtu	+0.3%	−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe	28.5 $/mmbtu	+12.1%	+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan	16.59 $/mmbtu	+2%	+49.5%
Natural gas index	182.7 2010=100	+8.9%	+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa	5.75 $/kg	−2.9%	−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica	7.4 $/kg	+1.9%	−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta	3.63 $/kg	−1.6%	−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions	2.88 $/kg	+0.7%	−4.3%
Tea, Colombo	3.75 $/kg	+0.5%	−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata	2.55 $/kg	+0.8%	−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa	2.33 $/kg	+1.3%	+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil	2,029 $/mt	−2.4%	−20.3%
Groundnuts	1,600 $/mt	+2.4%	+33.3%
Fish meal	2,840 $/mt	−2.6%	+60.5%
Groundnut oil	1,850 $/mt	−0.5%	+13.6%
Palm oil	1,120 $/mt	−5.1%	+7.9%
Palm kernel oil	2,287 $/mt	−2.9%	+0.6%
Soybeans	515 $/mt	−1.7%	+27.5%
Soybean oil	1,546 $/mt	−4.3%	+36.6%
Soybean meal	453 $/mt	+1.3%	+27.2%
Rapeseed oil	1,405 $/mt	−2.6%	+11.2%
Sunflower oil	1,413 $/mt	+1.4%	+3.7%
Barley	80.4 $/mtAugust 2020	—	—
Maize	226.5 $/mt	−5.5%	+14.3%
Sorghum	189.5 $/mtAugust 2020	—	—
Rice, Thai 5%	489 $/mt	+1.5%	+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%	472 $/mt	+2.4%	+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1	467.4 $/mt	−1.2%	+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%	413.9 $/mt	−1.1%	+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW	260.3 $/mt	−6.6%	+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW	317 $/mt	−8.6%	+37.3%
Banana, Europe	1.1 $/kg	−1.8%	−2.7%
Banana, US	1.18 $/kg	+5.4%	+4.4%
Orange	0.75 $/kg	−5.1%	−28.6%
Beef	6.83 $/kg	−0.4%	−3.7%
Chicken	1.84 $/kg	+1.7%	+7%
Lamb	7.48 $/kg	+3%	+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican	8.6 $/kgOctober 2023	—	—
Sugar, EU	0.37 $/kg	−2.6%	−2.6%
Sugar, US	0.92 $/kg	+8.2%	+19.5%
Sugar, world	0.43 $/kg	+4.9%	+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.	6,775 $/mtJuly 2026	—	—
Logs, Cameroon	392.1 $/cubic meter	−2.7%	−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian	188.5 $/cubic meter	−0.9%	−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon	636.8 $/cubic meter	−0.9%	−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian	724.3 $/cubic meter	−1%	−0.5%
Plywood	345.8 cents/sheet	−0.9%	−4.1%
Cotton, A Index	2 $/kg	−4.8%	+19%
Rubber, TSR20	2.55 $/kg	+5.8%	+49.1%
Rubber, RSS3	2.83 $/kg	+2.9%	+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock	170 $/mt	0%	+11.5%
DAP	803.1 $/mt	+0.3%	+6.5%
TSP	692 $/mt	+0.3%	+5.1%
Urea	420 $/mt	+3.1%	+6.5%
Potassium chloride	357.5 $/mt	−2.7%	+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum	3,061 $/mt	−6.8%	+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot	90.8 $/dmtu	−7.1%	−12.3%
Copper	14,508 $/mt	+0.2%	+35.1%
Lead	1,860 $/mt	−0.7%	−5.5%
Tin	51,696 $/mt	−3.8%	+43.6%
Nickel	15,436 $/mt	−5.4%	+2.3%
Zinc	3,818 $/mt	−5%	+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold	4,105 $/troy oz	−5%	+1.2%
Platinum	1,621 $/troy oz	−9.1%	+0.3%
Silver	57 $/troy oz	−11.8%	+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

Call	Calls	USDA cut	Raised	Unchanged
no cut expected	403	30	32	341
cut possible	1	0	1	0

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).