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Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

Ecuador: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Cocoa

45
WeatherHigh risk. Los Ríos (Babahoyo): 312 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 28.1 times normal: a flooding risk while the crop is flowering
MarketCocoa $5.75/kg in October, down 2.9% on the month, down 3.4% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (12,253 contracts net)
News3 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 45
  • +40 High weather risk. Los Ríos (Babahoyo): 312 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 28.1 times normal: a flooding risk while the crop is flowering
  • +5 Hedge funds are betting on lower prices despite the weather

Fish meal

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 150,000 t in 2025/26, up 42.9% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 110,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 25,000 t
MarketFish meal $2,840/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 60.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 43% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Bought from the US

USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.

CommodityThis weekShipped this year
soybean meal32,678 t65,806 ta year earlier 48,139
upland cotton4,293 bales10,312 balesa year earlier 6,256
beef4 t51 ta year earlier 29
wheat0 t76,505 ta year earlier 370,655
rice0 t0 ta year earlier 19
pork0 t77 ta year earlier 0

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Crude oil $15 billionPanama 35%, United States 24%, China 19%, Peru 7.4%
  • Cocoa $3.3 billionMalaysia 16%, United States 15%, Indonesia 12%, Belgium-Luxembourg (...1998) 10%
  • Copper $1.1 billionChina 95%, Peru 4.4%, Mexico 0.6%, South Korea 0.1%
  • Gold $1.1 billionSwitzerland 40%, United States 35%, United Arab Emirates 8.9%, Italy 7.9%
  • Palm oil $132 millionColombia 58%, Mexico 16%, United States 5.7%, Netherlands 4.2%
  • Fish meal $114 millionChina 68%, Colombia 8.1%, Japan 6.5%, Vietnam 2.9%
  • Lead $45 millionBrazil 61%, United States 24%, Colombia 10%, Greece 2.1%
  • Rice $42 millionColombia 99%, Peru 0.8%, United States 0.4%, Costa Rica 0.2%
  • Sugar $21 millionUnited States 85%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 4.4%, Spain 4.1%, Italy 1.7%
  • Coffee $13 millionChile 23%, France 13%, United States 13%, Colombia 11%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Soybean meal $718 millionArgentina 54%, United States 36%, Bolivia 8.4%, Brazil 0.5%
  • Wheat $545 millionCanada 54%, United States 21%, Argentina 14%, Brazil 11%
  • Soybean oil $122 millionBolivia 82%, Colombia 12%, Argentina 5.7%, Brazil 0.3%
  • Urea $117 millionRussia 85%, Trinidad and Tobago 3.5%, Finland 3.4%, Italy 3.2%
  • Corn (maize) $76 millionArgentina 64%, Thailand 18%, India 7.5%, Mexico 6.8%
  • Sugar $64 millionColombia 57%, Peru 31%, Guatemala 5.5%, Brazil 4.9%
  • Sunflower oil $64 millionBolivia 85%, Argentina 14%, Bulgaria 0.6%, Spain 0.3%
  • DAP fertilizer $62 millionRussia 55%, China 40%, Morocco 5.1%, United States 0%
  • Coffee $61 millionBrazil 48%, Colombia 34%, Honduras 5.9%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 3.4%
  • Potash $60 millionCanada 55%, Chile 26%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 9.3%, United States 7.6%

Ecuador's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).