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Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

Canada: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Soybeans

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 7.8 million t in 2026/27, up 12.7% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 5.7 million t, 3% of the world's; imports 380,000 t; bought 11,820 t of US soybeans in the week to Oct 29; 14,974 t shipped this marketing year (7,480 t a year earlier)
MarketSoybeans $515/mt in October, down 1.7% on the month, up 27.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (142,727 contracts net)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 13% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Corn (maize)

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 16.8 million t in 2026/27, up 13% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 3 million t, 1% of the world's; imports 2 million t, 1% of the world's; bought 33,000 t of US corn (maize) in the week to Oct 29; 70,085 t shipped this marketing year (93,570 t a year earlier)
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 13% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Table grapes

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2,200 t in 2025/26, up 84.7% on last year
TradeImports 200,000 t, 5% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 85% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Rapeseed oil

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 5.9 million t in 2026/27, up 7.1% on last year, 15% of the world's
TradeExports 3.9 million t, 44% of the world's; imports 20,000 t
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 7% bigger than last year's

Rapeseed meal

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 8 million t in 2026/27, up 5.9% on last year, 15% of the world's
TradeExports 6.4 million t, 55% of the world's; imports 10,000 t
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Rapeseed (canola)

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 22.5 million t in 2026/27, up 1.2% on last year, 22% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 7.9 million t, 38% of the world's; imports 150,000 t
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Oats

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.1 million t in 2026/27, down 20.9% on last year, 14% of the world's
TradeExports 1.4 million t, 49% of the world's; imports 15,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Rye

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 480,000 t in 2026/27, down 21.7% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 180,000 t, 54% of the world's; imports 2,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Wheat

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 36.5 million t in 2026/27, down 10% on last year, 4% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 30.5 million t, 15% of the world's; imports 650,000 t; bought 0 t of US wheat in the week to Oct 29; 8,450 t shipped this marketing year (14,530 t a year earlier)
MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)
News47 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pig herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 32.2 million head in 2027, up 2.1% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 7.7 million head, 76% of the world's; imports 2,000 head
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)

Beef

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.3 million t in 2027, up 1.2% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 600,000 t, 4% of the world's; imports 340,000 t, 3% of the world's; bought 341 t of US beef in the week to Oct 29; 26,045 t shipped this marketing year (33,302 t a year earlier)
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cheese

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 525,000 t in 2026, up 1% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 9,000 t; imports 65,000 t, 3% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Mixed grain

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 270,000 t in 2026/27, down 4.9% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of

Pork

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.2 million t in 2027, up 2.3% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 1.3 million t, 12% of the world's; imports 205,000 t, 2% of the world's; bought 752 t of US pork in the week to Oct 29; 70,447 t shipped this marketing year (62,950 t a year earlier)
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Skim milk powder

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 88,000 t in 2026, down 0% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 12,000 t; imports 2,000 t

Cattle herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 4.2 million head in 2027, up 1% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 615,000 head, 14% of the world's; imports 520,000 head, 29% of the world's
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)

Chicken

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.5 million t in 2027, up 2% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 110,000 t; imports 225,000 t, 2% of the world's
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Fish meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 65,000 t in 2025/26, down 0% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 1,000 t; imports 55,000 t, 2% of the world's
MarketFish meal $2,840/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 60.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Olive oil

0
CropUSDA expects no olive oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 75,000 t, 6% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed oil

0
CropUSDA expects no cottonseed oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeImports 6,000 t, 8% of the world's

Orange juice

0
CropUSDA expects no orange juice crop to speak of in 2025/26
TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 70,000 t, 6% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Tangerines and mandarins

0
CropUSDA expects no tangerines and mandarins crop to speak of in 2025/26
TradeImports 220,000 t, 5% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Bought from the US

USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.

CommodityThis weekShipped this year
corn33,000 t70,085 ta year earlier 93,570
soybean meal15,430 t42,761 ta year earlier 133,474
soybeans11,820 t14,974 ta year earlier 7,480
soybean oil1,223 t7,094 ta year earlier 1,592
rice839 t37,014 ta year earlier 27,071
pork752 t70,447 ta year earlier 62,950
beef341 t26,045 ta year earlier 33,302
wheat0 t8,450 ta year earlier 14,530

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Crude oil $109 billionUnited States 92%, China 4.4%, Netherlands 0.7%, United Kingdom 0.5%
  • Gold $52 billionUnited Kingdom 66%, Switzerland 14%, United States 11%, China 2.8%
  • Aluminium $8.3 billionUnited States 92%, Mexico 2.7%, Netherlands 2.5%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 1.1%
  • Wheat $7.8 billionIndonesia 10%, United States 8.8%, Japan 7.8%, China 7.3%
  • Coal $7.6 billionChina 26%, Japan 26%, South Korea 24%, India 7%
  • Iron ore $6.7 billionChina 26%, Netherlands 14%, Japan 12%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 7%
  • Potash $6.5 billionUnited States 46%, Brazil 16%, China 5.8%, Indonesia 5.1%
  • Natural gas $6.0 billionUnited States 100%, China 0%, Japan 0%
  • Copper $4.9 billionUnited States 29%, China 28%, Japan 17%, South Korea 14%
  • Rapeseed oil $4.3 billionUnited States 95%, Mexico 2.7%, South Korea 1%, China 0.3%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Crude oil $16 billionUnited States 68%, Saudi Arabia 8.9%, Nigeria 8.6%, Angola 4.6%
  • Gold $9.7 billionPeru 32%, Brazil 19%, Japan 8.4%, Mauritania 7.5%
  • Copper $2.5 billionUnited States 41%, Sweden 31%, Chile 14%, Dem. Rep. of the Congo 6.3%
  • Coffee $1.8 billionUnited States 31%, Colombia 15%, Switzerland 14%, Brazil 13%
  • Natural gas $1.6 billionUnited States 87%, Trinidad and Tobago 7.3%, Peru 5.9%, Japan 0%
  • Silver $1.5 billionUnited States 24%, Bolivia 15%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 7%, South Korea 7%
  • Cocoa $1.3 billionUnited States 35%, Côte d'Ivoire 20%, Malaysia 9.7%, Ecuador 7.2%
  • Beef $1.3 billionUnited States 50%, Australia 14%, New Zealand 11%, Mexico 9%
  • Sugar $803 millionBrazil 83%, Mexico 3.1%, Guatemala 2.8%, El Salvador 2.7%
  • Coal $789 millionUnited States 79%, Colombia 19%, South Africa 1.1%, United Kingdom 0.9%

Canada's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).