For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.
3 supply risks our sources aren't covering.
Supply risk not in the news
WeatherHigh risk. South Bahia (Ilhéus): 115 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
MarketCocoa $5.75/kg in October, down 2.9% on the month, down 3.4% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (12,253 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 45
- +40 High weather risk. South Bahia (Ilhéus): 115 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
- +5 Hedge funds are betting on lower prices despite the weather
Supply risk not in the news
CropUSDA: 12 million t in 2027, down 1.6% on last year, 20% of the world's
WeatherHigh risk. North Minas Gerais pastures (Montes Claros): 209 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 4.2 times normal: a flooding risk while the grass is growing
TradeExports 4.1 million t, 30% of the world's; imports 35,000 t; bought 0 t of US beef in the week to Oct 29; 0 t shipped this marketing year (22 t a year earlier)
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 40
- +40 High weather risk. North Minas Gerais pastures (Montes Claros): 209 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 4.2 times normal: a flooding risk while the grass is growing
Supply risk not in the news
CropUSDA: 71.9 million bags in 2026/27, up 14.1% on last year, 38% of the world's
WeatherMedium risk. Espírito Santo conilon (Colatina): 159 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.7 times normal: a flooding risk while the crop is growing
TradeExports 49.1 million bags, 31% of the world's; imports 90,000 bags
MarketArabica coffee $7.4/kg in October, up 1.9% on the month, down 16.9% on the year, the highest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (14,732 contracts net)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 35
- +25 Medium weather risk. Espírito Santo conilon (Colatina): 159 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.7 times normal: a flooding risk while the crop is growing
- +10 USDA expects a crop 14% bigger than last year's: room for a cut
CropUSDA: 8 million t in 2026/27, up 14.3% on last year, 13% of the world's; raised 23.1% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 2.1 million t, 22% of the world's; imports 100,000 t, 1% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 15
- +10 USDA expects a crop 14% bigger than last year's: room for a cut
- +5 USDA raised its estimate 23.1% in November
CropUSDA: 78,000 t in 2026/27, up 6.8% on last year
TradeExports 2,000 t; imports 235,000 t, 9% of the world's
MarketPalm kernel oil $2,287/mt in October, down 2.9% on the month, up 0.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
Why 5
- +5 USDA expects a crop 7% bigger than last year's
CropUSDA: 1 million t in 2025/26, up 1.9% on last year, 76% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 973,276 t, 77% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 186 million t in 2026/27, up 3% on last year, 42% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 118 million t, 61% of the world's; imports 1 million t
MarketSoybeans $515/mt in October, down 1.7% on the month, up 27.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (142,727 contracts net)
News5 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 13.5 million t in 2025/26, up 3.8% on last year, 29% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeImports 55,000 t, 1% of the world's
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 42.5 million t in 2026/27, down 3% on last year, 23% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 33.6 million t, 54% of the world's
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 872,000 t in 2026/27, up 0.8% on last year, 20% of the world's
TradeExports 5,000 t, 8% of the world's; imports 5,000 t, 6% of the world's
CropUSDA: 2.6 million t in 2026/27, up 0.9% on last year, 19% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of
CropUSDA: 50 million head in 2027, up 3.6% on last year, 18% of the world's
TradeExports 1 million head, 22% of the world's
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
CropUSDA: 13.3 million t in 2026/27, up 4% on last year, 18% of the world's
TradeExports 1.9 million t, 13% of the world's; imports 100,000 t
MarketSoybean oil $1,546/mt in October, down 4.3% on the month, up 36.6% on the year, the lowest since March 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 50 million t in 2026/27, up 4.5% on last year, 17% of the world's
TradeExports 27.3 million t, 30% of the world's; imports 10,000 t
MarketSoybean meal $453/mt in October, up 1.3% on the month, up 27.2% on the year, the highest since July 2024
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 19 million bales in 2026/27, up 1.3% on last year, 16% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 16 million bales, 36% of the world's; imports 5,000 bales
MarketCotton (A Index) $2/kg in October, down 4.8% on the month, up 19% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (44,168 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 6.3 million t in 2026/27, up 1.3% on last year, 16% of the world's
TradeExports 50,000 t, 5% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 16.3 million t in 2027, up 1.9% on last year, 14% of the world's
TradeExports 5.5 million t, 35% of the world's; imports 5,000 t
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 605,000 t in 2026, up 1.7% on last year, 14% of the world's
TradeExports 1,000 t; imports 140,000 t, 13% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 141 million t in 2026/27, down 2.4% on last year, 11% of the world's; raised 1.4% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 43 million t, 21% of the world's; imports 1.8 million t
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 1.8 million t in 2025/26, down 0% on last year, 6% of the world's
TradeExports 70,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 10,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 1.2 million t in 2026/27, down 11% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 5,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 5.1 million t in 2027, up 2.8% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 1.9 million t, 18% of the world's; imports 5,000 t
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 29.4 million t in 2026, up 2.3% on last year, 4% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 7,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 51 million head in 2027, up 1.2% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 10,000 head; imports 1,000 head
MarketHedge funds betting on lower prices (59,072 contracts net, their biggest bet in a year)
CropUSDA: 820,000 t in 2026, up 1.9% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 3,000 t; imports 60,000 t, 3% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 167,000 t in 2026, up 1.2% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeImports 50,000 t, 4% of the world's
CropUSDA: 198,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 180,000 t, 41% of the world's
MarketGroundnut oil $1,850/mt in October, down 0.5% on the month, up 13.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 229,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of
CropUSDA: 1.2 million t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 520,000 t, 11% of the world's; imports 5,000 t
MarketGroundnuts $1,600/mt in October, up 2.4% on the month, up 33.3% on the year, the highest since February 2025
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 7.4 million t in 2026/27, down 2.6% on last year, 1% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 1.4 million t, 2% of the world's; imports 950,000 t, 2% of the world's
MarketThai 5% rice $489/mt in October, up 1.5% on the month, up 37.4% on the year, the highest since June 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 1.2 million t in 2025/26, down 0% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 15,000 t; imports 220,000 t, 4% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA: 15,700 t in 2025/26, down 0% on last year
TradeExports 100 t; imports 175,000 t, 9% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
CropUSDA expects no olive oil crop to speak of in 2026/27
TradeImports 95,000 t, 8% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Bought from the US
USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.
| Commodity | This week | Shipped this year |
|---|
| wheat | 0 t | 15,255 ta year earlier 80,279 |
| beef | 0 t | 0 ta year earlier 22 |
Who buys its commodities
Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).
- Crude oil $46 billionChina 44%, United States 13%, Spain 10%, Netherlands 7%
- Soybeans $43 billionChina 73%, Spain 4.1%, Thailand 3.5%, Turkey 2.3%
- Iron ore $31 billionChina 64%, Malaysia 5%, Japan 3.5%, South Korea 3.5%
- Sugar $20 billionSaudi Arabia 10%, Indonesia 8.2%, India 8%, China 6.9%
- Coffee $12 billionUnited States 16%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 15%, Belgium-Luxembourg (...1998) 9.4%, Italy 7.7%
- Beef $12 billionChina 51%, United States 8.2%, United Arab Emirates 5.1%, Chile 4.6%
- Soybean meal $9.7 billionIndonesia 17%, Thailand 12%, Netherlands 9.5%, Iran 8.5%
- Chicken $9.1 billionChina 14%, United Arab Emirates 10%, Japan 9.4%, Saudi Arabia 9.1%
- Corn (maize) $8.3 billionEgypt 13%, Vietnam 11%, Iran 11%, South Korea 6.9%
- Cotton $5.1 billionChina 34%, Vietnam 20%, Bangladesh 12%, Pakistan 10%
Where its commodities come from
Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.
- Crude oil $9.1 billionSaudi Arabia 22%, United States 17%, Angola 10%, Guyana 9.7%
- Potash $3.9 billionRussia 41%, Canada 27%, Uzbekistan 11%, Israel 8.3%
- Natural gas $3.5 billionUnited States 50%, Bolivia 36%, Qatar 5.9%, United Kingdom 4.7%
- Coal $3.2 billionUnited States 46%, Australia 35%, Colombia 12%, Russia 4.8%
- Urea $2.9 billionNigeria 20%, Russia 19%, Oman 19%, Qatar 15%
- Copper $2.6 billionChile 82%, Peru 17%, South Africa 0.5%, Bolivia 0.1%
- Wheat $1.7 billionArgentina 62%, Uruguay 12%, Russia 11%, Paraguay 7.1%
- Olive oil $760 millionPortugal 60%, Spain 16%, Chile 7.5%, Argentina 7.4%
- Rice $690 millionParaguay 50%, Uruguay 27%, Thailand 14%, Argentina 5.1%
- Aluminium $624 millionArgentina 37%, India 19%, Venezuela 17%, Bahrain 9.4%
Brazil's country page
The record
Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.
| Call | Calls | USDA cut | Raised | Unchanged |
|---|
| no cut expected | 403 | 30 | 32 | 341 |
| cut possible | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sources
Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.
The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).