Skip to main content

Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

Australia: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Wheat

15· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 32.5 million t in 2026/27, down 9.7% on last year, 4% of the world's; raised 4.8% in November
WeatherLow risk. Central West NSW (Parkes): 53 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 24.5 million t, 12% of the world's; imports 235,000 t; bought 0 t of US wheat in the week to Oct 29; 0 t shipped this marketing year (0 t a year earlier)
MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)
News34 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 15
  • +10 Some weather risk. Central West NSW (Parkes): 53 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 3 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 4.8% in November

Sugar

15· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 4.2 million t in 2026/27, up 9.1% on last year, 2% of the world's
WeatherLow risk. Mackay, Queensland: 47 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.1 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
TradeExports 3.6 million t, 6% of the world's; imports 12,000 t
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 15
  • +10 Some weather risk. Mackay, Queensland: 47 mm of rain forecast in the next 10 days, 2.1 times normal, while the crop is being harvested
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 9% bigger than last year's

Barley

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 18 million t in 2026/27, up 8.3% on last year, 11% of the world's; raised 5.3% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 12 million t, 36% of the world's
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 8% bigger than last year's
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 5.3% in November

Rapeseed (canola)

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 8.4 million t in 2026/27, up 9.4% on last year, 8% of the world's; raised 7.7% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 6.5 million t, 32% of the world's; imports 2,000 t
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 9% bigger than last year's
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 7.7% in November

Rapeseed oil

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 623,000 t in 2026/27, up 15.8% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 300,000 t, 3% of the world's
MarketRapeseed oil $1,405/mt in October, down 2.6% on the month, up 11.2% on the year, the lowest since April 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 16% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Rapeseed meal

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 870,000 t in 2026/27, up 15.4% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 60,000 t
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 15% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Orange juice

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 17,300 t in 2025/26, up 10.2% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 4,300 t; imports 9,500 t
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 10% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Oats

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.8 million t in 2026/27, up 6.2% on last year, 8% of the world's
TradeExports 900,000 t, 31% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Sorghum

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.3 million t in 2026/27, down 10.5% on last year, 4% of the world's; raised 9.5% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 2.2 million t, 23% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 9.5% in November

Skim milk powder

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 180,000 t in 2026, up 5.9% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 150,000 t, 6% of the world's; imports 10,000 t
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Cotton

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.5 million bales in 2026/27, down 22.2% on last year, 3% of the world's; raised 16.7% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 4.5 million bales, 10% of the world's
MarketCotton (A Index) $2/kg in October, down 4.8% on the month, up 19% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (44,168 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 16.7% in November

Cottonseed

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 877,000 t in 2026/27, down 22.2% on last year, 2% of the world's; raised 16.8% in November
TradeExports 440,000 t, 47% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 16.8% in November

Tangerines and mandarins

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 270,000 t in 2025/26, up 5.9% on last year
TradeExports 133,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 1,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Butter

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 65,000 t in 2026, up 8.3% on last year
TradeExports 10,000 t; imports 50,000 t, 7% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 8% bigger than last year's

Almonds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 170,000 t in 2026/27, up 1.9% on last year, 10% of the world's
TradeExports 145,000 t, 12% of the world's; imports 1,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Beef

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.9 million t in 2027, down 2.2% on last year, 5% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 2.2 million t, 16% of the world's; imports 20,000 t
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
News18 reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cattle herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 10.4 million head in 2027, down 0.5% on last year, 4% of the world's
TradeExports 700,000 head, 15% of the world's
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)

Table grapes

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 210,000 t in 2025/26, down 8.7% on last year
TradeExports 120,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 8,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Cottonseed oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 8,000 t in 2026/27, down 0% on last year
TradeExports 5,000 t, 8% of the world's; imports 20,000 t, 26% of the world's

Bought from the US

USDA's weekly export sales, the week to October 29, 2026: new sales less cancellations, and this marketing year's shipments.

CommodityThis weekShipped this year
pork1,332 t22,756 ta year earlier 32,060
rice20 t155 ta year earlier 80
wheat0 t0 ta year earlier 0
soybean meal0 t0 ta year earlier 0

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Iron ore $87 billionChina 83%, Japan 6.2%, South Korea 6.2%, Taiwan 1.8%
  • Coal $62 billionJapan 28%, India 18%, China 14%, South Korea 8.7%
  • Natural gas $47 billionJapan 34%, China 32%, South Korea 15%, Taiwan 9.9%
  • Gold $30 billionUnited Kingdom 19%, Switzerland 15%, China 13%, China, Hong Kong SAR 12%
  • Beef $9.2 billionUnited States 31%, China 16%, Japan 15%, South Korea 14%
  • Copper $8.2 billionChina 29%, Japan 20%, Taiwan 9.1%, Malaysia 8.4%
  • Crude oil $6.7 billionSouth Korea 31%, Singapore 19%, Thailand 15%, Indonesia 11%
  • Wheat $5.7 billionChina 17%, Indonesia 15%, Philippines 13%, Yemen 7.9%
  • Aluminium $3.8 billionSouth Korea 26%, Japan 21%, Vietnam 11%, Taiwan 9.6%
  • Rapeseed (canola) $2.9 billionJapan 20%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 14%, Belgium-Luxembourg (...1998) 13%, Pakistan 12%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Gold $6.5 billionPapua New Guinea 38%, United States 18%, New Zealand 8.1%, Lao People's Dem. Rep. 6.4%
  • Crude oil $5.1 billionMalaysia 39%, United States 18%, Vietnam 12%, Brunei Darussalam 11%
  • Urea $1.4 billionUnited Arab Emirates 20%, Qatar 16%, Saudi Arabia 15%, Indonesia 15%
  • Coffee $666 millionBrazil 19%, Switzerland 17%, Colombia 10%, Vietnam 8.8%
  • Cheese $630 millionNew Zealand 35%, United States 19%, Italy 11%, France 6.7%
  • Pork $609 millionUnited States 49%, Denmark 24%, Netherlands 15%, Canada 5.2%
  • Cocoa $492 millionMalaysia 32%, Singapore 28%, Indonesia 26%, Côte d'Ivoire 4.2%
  • Soybean meal $436 millionArgentina 94%, United States 3.9%, Brazil 1%, Malaysia 0.2%
  • Silver $336 millionPoland 32%, Papua New Guinea 29%, South Korea 27%, China, Hong Kong SAR 3.8%
  • Potash $285 millionCanada 42%, United States 36%, Jordan 13%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 3.5%

Australia's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).