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Commodity watch · updated Nov 13, 7:44 AM EST

Argentina: commodities

For every crop USDA forecasts and every country that matters for it: USDA's crop outlook, the weather forecast over the main growing regions at the crop's stage, trade, prices and hedge funds' bets, and how much our sources are saying about it. A plain score from 0 to 100 says how much the supply looks at risk, and when the risk is real but the news is quiet, the watch raises a flag. Now: 800 cards for 62 commodities, 5 flagged.

Sorghum

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.2 million t in 2026/27, up 39.7% on last year, 5% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 1.7 million t, 18% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 40% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Whole milk powder

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 220,000 t in 2026, up 12.8% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 170,000 t, 8% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 13% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Peanuts

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.5 million t in 2026/27, up 14% on last year, 3% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 1.1 million t, 24% of the world's
MarketGroundnuts $1,600/mt in October, up 2.4% on the month, up 33.3% on the year, the highest since February 2025
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 14% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Rye

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 210,000 t in 2026/27, up 13.5% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 14% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Skim milk powder

10· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 55,000 t in 2026, up 10% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 30,000 t, 1% of the world's
Why 10
  • +10 USDA expects a crop 10% bigger than last year's: room for a cut

Sunflower oil

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.7 million t in 2026/27, up 6.1% on last year, 11% of the world's
TradeExports 2.1 million t, 13% of the world's
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Sunflower meal

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.7 million t in 2026/27, up 6.1% on last year, 11% of the world's
TradeExports 2 million t, 20% of the world's
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 6% bigger than last year's

Corn (maize)

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 57 million t in 2026/27, down 10.9% on last year, 4% of the world's; raised 3.6% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 40 million t, 19% of the world's; imports 5,000 t
MarketMaize $226.5/mt in October, down 5.5% on the month, up 14.3% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (8,795 contracts net)
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 3.6% in November

Wheat

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 23 million t in 2026/27, down 17.5% on last year, 3% of the world's; raised 7% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 16.5 million t, 8% of the world's; imports 12,000 t
MarketUS HRW wheat $317/mt in October, down 8.6% on the month, up 37.3% on the year, the lowest since July 2026; hedge funds betting on lower prices (87,126 contracts net)
News2 reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA raised its estimate 7% in November

Cheese

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 580,000 t in 2026, up 7.4% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 110,000 t, 3% of the world's; imports 2,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 7% bigger than last year's

Oranges

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 680,000 t in 2025/26, up 9.7% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 80,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 3,000 t
MarketOrange $0.75/kg in October, down 5.1% on the month, down 28.6% on the year, the lowest since February 2022
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 10% bigger than last year's

Sugar

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2 million t in 2026/27, up 9% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 600,000 t, 1% of the world's
MarketWorld sugar $0.43/kg in October, up 4.9% on the month, up 26.5% on the year, the highest since December 2024; hedge funds betting on higher prices (223,784 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 9% bigger than last year's

Butter

5· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 45,000 t in 2026, up 9.8% on last year
TradeExports 30,000 t, 2% of the world's; imports 1,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 5
  • +5 USDA expects a crop 10% bigger than last year's

Lemons and limes

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 1.9 million t in 2025/26, down 0.5% on last year, 19% of the world's
TradeExports 210,000 t, 9% of the world's; imports 20,000 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Sunflower seed

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 7.8 million t in 2026/27, up 2.4% on last year, 12% of the world's; cut 2.5% in November
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 900,000 t, 23% of the world's; imports 1,000 t
MarketSunflower oil $1,413/mt in October, up 1.4% on the month, up 3.7% on the year, the highest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days
Why 0
  • -10 USDA already cut its estimate 2.5% in November

Soybean oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 8.7 million t in 2026/27, up 1.3% on last year, 12% of the world's
TradeExports 6.8 million t, 45% of the world's; imports 140,000 t, 1% of the world's
MarketSoybean oil $1,546/mt in October, down 4.3% on the month, up 36.6% on the year, the lowest since March 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Soybeans

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 50 million t in 2026/27, up 1.5% on last year, 11% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 6.8 million t, 4% of the world's; imports 6.5 million t, 3% of the world's
MarketSoybeans $515/mt in October, down 1.7% on the month, up 27.5% on the year, the lowest since August 2026; hedge funds betting on higher prices (142,727 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Beef

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 3.1 million t in 2027, up 3% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeExports 800,000 t, 6% of the world's; imports 50,000 t
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)
News1 report in our sources in the last 14 days

Cattle herds

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 14.5 million head in 2027, down 0.7% on last year, 5% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of
MarketBeef $6.83/kg in October, down 0.4% on the month, down 3.7% on the year, the lowest since July 2025; hedge funds betting on higher prices (49,691 contracts net)

Barley

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 5.1 million t in 2026/27, down 8.5% on last year, 3% of the world's
WeatherNo weather risk in the next 10 days in the main growing regions
TradeExports 3.2 million t, 10% of the world's
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Pears

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 658,000 t in 2025/26, up 0.2% on last year, 3% of the world's
TradeExports 345,000 t, 18% of the world's; imports 500 t
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Chicken

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 2.6 million t in 2027, up 0.6% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 120,000 t; imports 60,000 t
MarketChicken $1.84/kg in October, up 1.7% on the month, up 7% on the year, the highest since May 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Oats

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 500,000 t in 2026/27, down 60.2% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeNo exports or imports to speak of
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Peanut meal

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 128,000 t in 2026/27, down 7.9% on last year, 2% of the world's
TradeExports 35,000 t, 21% of the world's

Peanut oil

0· no cut expected
CropUSDA: 84,000 t in 2026/27, down 8.7% on last year, 1% of the world's
TradeExports 75,000 t, 17% of the world's
MarketGroundnut oil $1,850/mt in October, down 0.5% on the month, up 13.6% on the year, the lowest since August 2026
NewsNo reports in our sources in the last 14 days

Who buys its commodities

Its biggest commodity exports (farm, energy, metals) in 2024 and their main buyers, by value (CEPII BACI, January 2026 release, from UN trade statistics; Etalab Open Licence 2.0).

  • Soybean meal $9.8 billionVietnam 16%, Malaysia 6.1%, Poland 6%, Saudi Arabia 5.8%
  • Corn (maize) $7.6 billionVietnam 18%, Peru 13%, Malaysia 10%, South Korea 9.5%
  • Soybean oil $6.0 billionIndia 45%, Canada 10%, Bangladesh 6.9%, Peru 5.7%
  • Crude oil $5.3 billionChile 41%, United States 30%, Brazil 10%, Peru 6.8%
  • Gold $3.4 billionSwitzerland 49%, United States 23%, India 14%, Canada 7.2%
  • Beef $3.3 billionChina 54%, Fed. Rep. of Germany (...1990) 9.7%, Israel 7.1%, United States 6.5%
  • Soybeans $2.1 billionChina 88%, United States 3.5%, Chile 1.7%, Saudi Arabia 1.4%
  • Wheat $1.9 billionBrazil 56%, Indonesia 18%, Peru 4.9%, Ecuador 3.9%
  • Peanuts $940 millionNetherlands 34%, Poland 7.9%, United Kingdom 7.1%, Russia 6.5%
  • Aluminium $936 millionUnited States 51%, Brazil 25%, Mexico 7.3%, Italy 5%

Where its commodities come from

Its biggest commodity imports in 2024 and where they come from, by value.

  • Soybeans $2.9 billionParaguay 94%, Brazil 3.1%, Uruguay 2%, Bolivia 0.7%
  • Natural gas $1.1 billionUnited States 52%, Bolivia 36%, Trinidad and Tobago 5.4%, Chile 3.5%
  • Iron ore $588 millionBrazil 87%, Canada 7.8%, South Africa 4.4%, Bolivia 0.9%
  • Urea $390 millionNigeria 28%, Algeria 26%, Turkmenistan 19%, Qatar 6.5%
  • Cocoa $265 millionBrazil 80%, Peru 6.9%, Uruguay 4.6%, Ecuador 3.8%
  • Coal $217 millionUnited States 70%, Australia 20%, Colombia 9.8%, Brazil 0.1%
  • DAP fertilizer $158 millionMorocco 49%, China 34%, United States 9.2%, Russia 7.8%
  • Coffee $153 millionBrazil 68%, Switzerland 13%, Colombia 7.7%, Uruguay 4%
  • Soybean meal $118 millionParaguay 100%, Brazil 0.3%, Bolivia 0.1%, United States 0.1%
  • Zinc $83 millionBrazil 96%, Peru 1.8%, Belgium-Luxembourg (...1998) 0.8%, Chile 0.5%

Argentina's country page

Prices, October 2026

The World Bank's monthly averages in US dollars (the Pink Sheet, updated November 3), against the month before and a year before. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

CommodityPriceMonthYear
Energy
Crude oil, average108.5 $/bbl+6.1%+72.2%
Crude oil, Brent125 $/bbl+7%+93.2%
Crude oil, Dubai102.7 $/bbl+10.1%+59.7%
Crude oil, WTI97.7 $/bbl+0.8%+62.3%
Coal, Australian152.3 $/mt+3.5%+41.7%
Coal, South African100 $/mt+1.8%+9.2%
Natural gas, US2.96 $/mmbtu+0.3%−7.5%
Natural gas, Europe28.5 $/mmbtu+12.1%+161.7%
Liquefied natural gas, Japan16.59 $/mmbtu+2%+49.5%
Natural gas index182.7 2010=100+8.9%+86.2%
Beverages
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9%−3.4%
Coffee, Arabica7.4 $/kg+1.9%−16.9%
Coffee, Robusta3.63 $/kg−1.6%−23.4%
Tea, avg 3 auctions2.88 $/kg+0.7%−4.3%
Tea, Colombo3.75 $/kg+0.5%−4.8%
Tea, Kolkata2.55 $/kg+0.8%−10.8%
Tea, Mombasa2.33 $/kg+1.3%+4.5%
Food
Coconut oil2,029 $/mt−2.4%−20.3%
Groundnuts1,600 $/mt+2.4%+33.3%
Fish meal2,840 $/mt−2.6%+60.5%
Groundnut oil1,850 $/mt−0.5%+13.6%
Palm oil1,120 $/mt−5.1%+7.9%
Palm kernel oil2,287 $/mt−2.9%+0.6%
Soybeans515 $/mt−1.7%+27.5%
Soybean oil1,546 $/mt−4.3%+36.6%
Soybean meal453 $/mt+1.3%+27.2%
Rapeseed oil1,405 $/mt−2.6%+11.2%
Sunflower oil1,413 $/mt+1.4%+3.7%
Barley80.4 $/mtAugust 2020——
Maize226.5 $/mt−5.5%+14.3%
Sorghum189.5 $/mtAugust 2020——
Rice, Thai 5%489 $/mt+1.5%+37.4%
Rice, Thai 25%472 $/mt+2.4%+34.5%
Rice, Thai A.1467.4 $/mt−1.2%+39.1%
Rice, Viet Namese 5%413.9 $/mt−1.1%+13.2%
Wheat, US SRW260.3 $/mt−6.6%+24.4%
Wheat, US HRW317 $/mt−8.6%+37.3%
Banana, Europe1.1 $/kg−1.8%−2.7%
Banana, US1.18 $/kg+5.4%+4.4%
Orange0.75 $/kg−5.1%−28.6%
Beef6.83 $/kg−0.4%−3.7%
Chicken1.84 $/kg+1.7%+7%
Lamb7.48 $/kg+3%+18.2%
Shrimps, Mexican8.6 $/kgOctober 2023——
Sugar, EU0.37 $/kg−2.6%−2.6%
Sugar, US0.92 $/kg+8.2%+19.5%
Sugar, world0.43 $/kg+4.9%+26.5%
Raw materials
Tobacco, US import u.v.6,775 $/mtJuly 2026——
Logs, Cameroon392.1 $/cubic meter−2.7%−3.7%
Logs, Malaysian188.5 $/cubic meter−0.9%−4.1%
Sawnwood, Cameroon636.8 $/cubic meter−0.9%−0.5%
Sawnwood, Malaysian724.3 $/cubic meter−1%−0.5%
Plywood345.8 cents/sheet−0.9%−4.1%
Cotton, A Index2 $/kg−4.8%+19%
Rubber, TSR202.55 $/kg+5.8%+49.1%
Rubber, RSS32.83 $/kg+2.9%+41.5%
Fertilizers
Phosphate rock170 $/mt0%+11.5%
DAP803.1 $/mt+0.3%+6.5%
TSP692 $/mt+0.3%+5.1%
Urea420 $/mt+3.1%+6.5%
Potassium chloride357.5 $/mt−2.7%+1.6%
Metals and minerals
Aluminum3,061 $/mt−6.8%+9.6%
Iron ore, cfr spot90.8 $/dmtu−7.1%−12.3%
Copper14,508 $/mt+0.2%+35.1%
Lead1,860 $/mt−0.7%−5.5%
Tin51,696 $/mt−3.8%+43.6%
Nickel15,436 $/mt−5.4%+2.3%
Zinc3,818 $/mt−5%+21.1%
Precious metals
Gold4,105 $/troy oz−5%+1.2%
Platinum1,621 $/troy oz−9.1%+0.3%
Silver57 $/troy oz−11.8%+15.4%

The record

Each card's score calls USDA's next revision of the country's crop: 50 or more “cut likely”, 30 to 49 “cut possible”, under 30 “no cut expected”. When USDA revises (grains, oilseeds and cotton every month, about the 10th; coffee and sugar twice a year), the last call before it is checked against what USDA did.

CallCallsUSDA cutRaisedUnchanged
no cut expected4033032341
cut possible1010

Sources

Crop figures: USDA FAS (PSD, Weekly Export Sales). Prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0. Hedge funds: CFTC Commitments of Traders. Weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), normals from NASA POWER. Trade partners: CEPII BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0). Crop calendars after USDA FAS's; growing regions are the main ones of each main producer.

The same readings as data, free: GET /api/v1/commodities (and /map, /country/{code}, /prices, /weather, /scorecard).